Decision ‘08

Outlier Alert!

This a real shocker, but it’s also so far off of other polling that it must be viewed with a suspicious eye - nevertheless, Rhode Island, written off by most (including me), according to Mason-Dixon, is now Chafee +1.

Amazing, if true…regardless, I grow increasingly optimistic about the Senate, while remaining pessimistic about the House…

5 Responses to “Outlier Alert!”

1 Aaron Says:
November 5th, 2006 at 2:53 pm
I dunno . . . I was looking through the close races on RCP yesterday and I thought it looked like a net loss of 5 seats for the GOP in the House. I didn’t notice RCP averaging the races, and there were several where the Dem candidate had led by 5-10 points a week ago, but the most recent polls put the race in a virtual tie.
2 Mark Says:
November 5th, 2006 at 3:32 pm
I gotta stand by my predictions: Dems +19 in the House, +4 in the Senate…
3 jwest Says:
November 5th, 2006 at 4:46 pm
Who was it that was saying Chafee, an undeserving lump of moderate garbage, was going to win in R.I.?

I can’t remember his name, but he sure was smart.
4 Mark Says:
November 5th, 2006 at 5:27 pm
Hey, I’ll give you props…but it’s not a win yet…
5 brassband Says:
November 5th, 2006 at 9:39 pm
Look at all the responses in the Chafee poll and you will see that the challenger, former A.G. Whitehouse, has high negatives.

Here in RI the problem that Whitehouse has is that he is unlikeable and perceived as untrustworthy.

Given the closeness of the candidates on most of the issues, the “likeability” factor will favor Linc. If he wins, that’s the reason.