Decision ‘08

A Plethora Of Polling, Punditry, And Predictions

NRO’s The Corner: Dems +6 in the Senate…

Reuters/Zogby: Menendez by 12(!) in New Jersey…

Rutgers-Eagleton: Menendez by 4…

Larry Sabatto: Dems +5-6 in Senate, +24-30 in House…

Patterico: Truth +50 over NY Times…

16 Responses to “A Plethora Of Polling, Punditry, And Predictions”

1 jwest Says:
November 2nd, 2006 at 2:05 pm
Chances are that if you order fries with your burger after Nov 8th, the person serving them will be an ex-pollster.

I can’t wait to see Sabatto in one of those paper hats.

Charlie Cook will be saying “Yah, in a few years I’ll be the assistant manager – and that’s where the big bucks are”.
2 Fargus Says:
November 2nd, 2006 at 2:50 pm
So, jwest, if the Democrats have Kerry to use as an excuse if they lose, what’ll YOUR excuse be if you’re as wrong as just about everybody else in the world indicates you’ll be?
3 jwest Says:
November 2nd, 2006 at 3:16 pm
If things don’t turn out the way I’ve predicted there won’t be any excuses.

No whining, no blame.

Christ, if I did that I’d be no better than…..a Liberal!

But seriously, if you think about these elections independently without being swayed by the media hype, what enormous factor is it that you believe will change life-long republicans into democrats? Do you really think that the republican base, which in every other cycle has been willing to crawl through broken glass to vote, are going to stay home this time?

How many times can people be fooled by polls that haven’t accurately predicted anything in recordable history?

I believe that it takes an irresistible force to attempt moving an immovable object. Even with the media hype, the democrat effort just falls short.
4 mtl Says:
November 2nd, 2006 at 3:20 pm
what’s the deal with tester?

this went from likely dem, to toss up, pretty fast.

dare I read anything about the implication, of base coming home, to an absolute turd, in a very red state?

Aren’t all those seats the dems are hoping for in red areas?

gasp…are the dems bleeding?
5 mtl Says:
November 2nd, 2006 at 3:28 pm
formerly, the foley scandal was said to cause a strong shift.

but then the gop candidate for foley’s own seat, has also moved from dem pick up to toss up. Clearly the scandal has died a little, in the very seat where it originated. The pollsters have noted the effect of political ‘nitrous oxide’ that foley was, but failed to account for the actual removal from the dnc engine.
6 Fargus Says:
November 2nd, 2006 at 3:32 pm
Right. Republicans are “an immovable object.”

Now I know where you stand, with respect to conceivable reality. If you were talking about an uphill battle that Democrats haven’t been fighting well, that’s a discussion. But to talk about your side as “an immovable object” dispatches any temptation I may have had to try to have a rational conversation with you about it.
7 jwest Says:
November 2nd, 2006 at 3:41 pm
Mtl,

Montana is a textbook case for crap polling.

Looking back, all of the polls except for 1 were small samples (under 1000) which are notoriously inaccurate. Even in the best cases, there would be a margin of +/- 4.5%. If you use the historical data for actual turnout and voter patterns, a democrat like Tester has a better statistical chance of flying than being elected.

Foley’s district has an enormous republican majority, some of the highest income and education figures in the country, but the media just assumed we would loose for some reason. I’m confident the people of West Palm will know they are not voting to endorse page molesting.
8 jwest Says:
November 2nd, 2006 at 4:01 pm
Fargus,

’94 was a year of realignment that simply brought most districts that traditionally voted for republicans into republican control. The previous representatives were “leftovers” from a long run of democrat control of the House. The House Post Office scandal, the Contract With America, etc. were all things that helped, but the reason 50+ seats changed hands was that the districts were basically republican by nature.

If there was any indication of a shift in voter patterns in the districts the “experts” think are in play, I would be right there with them. But that is not the case. No one (except some of the tin-foil-hat crowd) thinks that there has been a fundamental change in the country from right to left. If anything, the only seats democrats think they have a chance at are being contested by democrats trying to out-republican republicans.

Yes, the entrenched republican districts are “immovable objects”, just as San Francisco is immovably left. If you saw polls and listened to chatter on FOX saying that Nancy Pelosi was about to be ousted by a republican, would you believe it?

The polls are using mistaken assumptions in their modeling that, when coupled with the difficulties of polling crazy-shaped congressional districts and small sampling, give bad results.

Garbage in = Garbage out
9 mtl Says:
November 2nd, 2006 at 4:14 pm
actually, I agree mt is nearly impossible to poll.

polling 1000 people though, when only five hundred actually turnout-just kidding…

it’s impossible to find a good demographic group in a state that size, with such a tiny relative population.

I imagine they have over 50% of the population using cell phones, exculsively.
10 mtl Says:
November 2nd, 2006 at 4:20 pm
if lamont, tester, and webb lose…does it make kos 0-40?
does he have any other ‘horses’ running from his stable?

I should give him credit for the lamont ‘win’. so 1 out of 40(or whatever #). never bet against a streak.
11 jwest Says:
November 2nd, 2006 at 4:24 pm
Bush took Montana by 20 points in ’04. Dole even won over Clinton in ’96 there.

If Burns had been caught molesting livestock on camera, perhaps Tester would have a chance – unless the cows in question were exceptionally cute. That not being the case, chalk this one up in the (R) column.
12 Dmac Says:
November 2nd, 2006 at 5:52 pm
“Now I know where you stand, with respect to conceivable reality.”

For someone who allegedly will be quite pleased if the Dems win, you sound like a person who’s already counting his losses here, complete with the usual sour grapes in tow. If you’re so desperately unhappy with the prognostications here, how about a prediction from your world - class intellect at this time? Come now, don’t be shy - the universe awaits your powers of prognostication.
13 Fargus Says:
November 3rd, 2006 at 9:00 am
I don’t pretend to be prescient about this, Dmac, for all that your smug snark would love to suggest otherwise. I’ve been, and still am, apprehensive about this whole thing from my end.

I simply mean that a prediction like jwest’s, of a Democratic gain of 6 in the House, Republican gain of 2 in the Senate, begs quite a bit of explanation, given the polling (and excuse me if a blanket dismissals of all polls as worthless doesn’t QUITE cut it).
14 jwest Says:
November 3rd, 2006 at 12:06 pm
Fargus,

Although my projections may seem wildly optimistic and totally contrary to popular opinion, they are based in solid facts.

I look at historical voting and turnout patterns while heavily discounting small sample polling. I find it hard to believe that anything a Florida congressman does will influence the voters in Pennsylvania. I also find it hard to believe that anything Foley did will influence the voters in his own district.

This defies conventional thinking, but remember Duke Cunningham. People went to the voting booths as video of him being led out in handcuffs was playing. The result? The democrat picked up 1 point.

Iraq? Pro-war voters may not be as vocal as the other side, but they are just as committed when it comes to voting.

Practically every republican started off as democrat. As they acquired wisdom they changed into republicans, some quicker than others. Wisdom is not something that is easily lost, so you can see how inconceivable it would be for people to change in the course of two short years.

This election is going to be very familiar to republicans and democrats alike.
15 Fargus Says:
November 3rd, 2006 at 2:20 pm
See, and that’s basically a slur. Republicans are just like Democrats with brains, eh?

Try as I might, I can’t come up with a comparable thing that I’ve said that would insult you in such a fashion.
16 jwest Says:
November 3rd, 2006 at 2:45 pm
Fargus,

We’re four days out from a really partisan election.

Have fun with it.

Don’t be hypersensitive like Michael J. Fox. My jab about wisdom is just a light-hearted way to drive home a point. Please don’t take it personally