Decision ‘08

More Uh-Oh…

I may as well say it: though my prediction of Dems +4 stands, for now, if we lose Virginia, we likely lose the Senate…and a new Rasmussen poll has Webb +5. RealClearPolitics puts it this way:

Rasmussen has just released what is a little bit of a shocker poll showing George Allen dropping seven points in 5 days. If the direction of this poll, not necessarily the magnitude of the move, but the direction is confirmed by other major polling — George Allen is in big, big trouble. This race had already crept up to #7 on RCP’s most vulnerable Senate seats and Allen had real risks heading into election day just by his inability to shake off Webb when he was leading in the RCP Average. Now with Webb moving out to a lead in the latest RCP Average, the Allen campaign better hope this poll is a weekend produced outlier.

I can’t help but think that part of this is because the campaign has shifted away from the issues again. I could care less what Webb wrote in a work of fiction (his all-too-real retrograde sexism on women in the military is another story altogether), but I do care that he is apparently an economic populist in the Jim Hightower mode.

George Allen has a precious few days left, and he should spend them on his message, as conveyed here quite eloquently in an interview with Captain Ed:

The positive message that I am taking around Virginia is aimed at anyone who pays taxes, works for a living, or cares about their families. It’s a message of trusting free people and free enterprise versus big government solutions and plans. Specifically, I am talking about three missions for Virginia. First and foremost, protect our freedoms – that means supporting our troops in the War on Terror, securing our borders, and making America less dependent on foreign sources of energy sources. Second, make America a land of opportunity for all – lower taxes, less litigation, less regulation, more personalized healthcare options, and improved educational opportunities, especially in the areas of science, engineering, and technology. Third, preserve our foundational values – part of this is ensuring that unelected federal judges who are appointed for life do not disregard the will, the desire, and the hope of the American people.

That’s a winning message. Stick with the issues, Senator…there’s still time yet…

6 Responses to “More Uh-Oh…”

1 peter Says:
October 30th, 2006 at 10:48 pm
You can’t blame a politician for talking in sound bites, but George Allen isn’t really saying much here.

The question he should have been asked after his second point is how he is going to provide “more personalized healthcare options and improved educational opportunities” along with “lower taxes.” Everybody wants better health care, more education, and lower taxes. The problem is that lowering taxes and providing more services are mutually exclusive (or they should be, anyway).

The question he should have been asked after his third point is what he plans to do about it. Start electing federal judges? Not make them appointed for life? Or are they supposed to follow “the will, the desire, and the hope of the American people” or are they supposed to follow the Constitution? What exactly is his point here?

I’m not suggesting that Webb is any more profound — only that this is the silly season, and anyone expecting anything approaching wisdom from politicians is likely to be disappointed.
2 Mark Says:
October 30th, 2006 at 11:19 pm
Well, Peter, with vouchers for education and personal health savings accounts for health care, I presume…
3 peter Says:
October 30th, 2006 at 11:55 pm
Fair enough — I’m not sure how it would all fit together, but it would certainly be worth exploring –
4 Chris J. Breisch Says:
October 31st, 2006 at 10:33 am
I also see VA as leaning Dem now, when just last week I said you could bet the house on VA. NJ is now a toss-up though when I had that as a leans Dem. I would say the Senate now “leans Dem”, as well, so my bad news agrees with your bad news.

Oh well. Earlier in the year, I considered the option of spanking the Republicans in the hopes they’d see that and get their act in gear for ‘08, but I eventually decided that was too risky. Might have to go back to that fall-back plan now.
5 mtl Says:
October 31st, 2006 at 11:38 am
Still think that va is in the bag, but for Webb believers…

Kaine’s victory and Warner’s popularity suggest that Allen must swm against a blue stream, in a formerly red state…

It is the same reason I am optimistic about md(and even hopeful about pa), but not nj.
6 me Says:
October 31st, 2006 at 7:56 pm
this was a one-day poll (translation: quite likely garbage)