Informed Speculation

(I’m talking about Dick Morris – man, you people have filthy minds!).  This is the kind of hyperventilating that I just can’t stomach:

The Republican base, that vaunted entity whose every mood swing has controlled the zigs and zags of the Bush administration policy, has moved out, according to the latest Gallup polling. Karl Rove’s heroic efforts to preserve its fealty have failed to move Republican base voters. Karl cannot compensate for Bush’s failure to project his issues as the midterm disaster for the Republican Party nears.

The Gallup poll of Oct. 6-8 shows that, in the wake of the Foley scandal, the number of “white frequent churchgoers” who are planning to vote Republican has dropped from 58 percent to 47 percent since last month. The margin of their support for Republicans over Democrats, 26 percentage points in September, has entirely disappeared and the parties are tied among this core element of the Republican base.

The Gallup poll also reveals that Democrats now win all eight major issues, including terrorism and morality. Asked which party would do more to enhance “moral standards in the country,” Democrats now win 47 to 36! And on terrorism, Democrats now have a 47-to-42-percent advantage.

The Foley scandal has wrought extraordinary damage to the Republican Party and appears to have had a particularly negative impact on the base. No amount of blame shifting onto Democrats for breaking the story or for holding it until September is likely to compensate for the evidence that House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) did not act promptly to expose it himself. According to the latest Fox News poll, 61 percent of voters believe that Hastert knew about the Foley affair early on and did nothing to stop it.

Yet another reason to look dimly on the ‘science’ of polling.  Listen up: 61 percent of Americans don’t have a clue who Dennis Hastert is, much less what he did about Mark Foley.  That result is bogus, bogus, bogus. Think about it (and yes, I’m using common sense again, so sue me, all you Lancet study supporters): walk into a Wal-Mart, a baseball stadium, a shopping mall.  Ask people who the Speaker of the House is.  If 30% get it right, I’ll buy you the most expensive steak in town.

The evangelical vote is not going to suddenly abandon Republicans because of Mark Foley.  The issues that motivate them go far beyond what one person did.  Yes, they are disgusted, and yes, Republican turnout may be depressed, but the trend was evident way before anyone heard of Mark Foley.  Morris may be right about the end result, in other words, but he’s way off on the cause. Here’s pollster Charlie Cook, who also predicts a Democratic landslide:

While many attribute the Republican freefall to the scandal involving former Rep. Mark Foley and his e-mails to congressional pages, it really was no more than the straw that broke the camel’s back. The seeds of Republicans’ problems were planted long before publication of the congressman’s e-mails to pages. The war in Iraq, Hurricane Katrina, other congressional scandals, federal budget spending and deficits, stem-cell research, Terri Schiavo and a multitude of other factors had been feeding the creation of an undertow for the GOP that goes back over a year. The “time for a change” dynamic that worked against Democrats in 1994 gradually came into place, fueled by all those factors mentioned above, and now it would probably take some huge event to alter its course.

Hold the phone, though, all you blowout prognisticators; as John McIntyre says, if you’re going to play the ‘wave’ card, it’s too soon to play it:

In the last few days we have seen an increasing number of dramatic predictions of massive Democratic gains in November. National Journal’s Charlie Cook is talking about a “once or twice in a generation election” like 1994 and 1974 where the incumbent party lost 52 and 49 seats. And Jim VandeHei writes in today’s Washington Post:

Democrats said private polls have convinced top party officials that they could pick up 40 or more seats — nearly double their internal projections from a week ago…..

So Cook and VandeHei are pumping the Democratic blowout line today, which is fine. But I don’t know how much that tells us about what the playing field is going to look like in 19 days on November 6. Is it possible that 2006 is another 1994 or 1972 or 1932? Sure, it’s possible. Is it likely? Well, that is another story.

Three weeks is a long time. The former trader in me asks: “at what point is the bad news priced in for the GOP?” And where is the Democratic wave talk going to go next? Are we going to see stories in a couple of weeks playing up Democratic prospects of winning 60-70 seats? Or is it more likely we will get a swing back to the GOP and see the inevitable stories wondering “Did the Democrats Peak Too Soon?”

My money would be on the latter.

My much-maligned gut tells me to hold off on the predictions…I’m very nervous about a Democratic blowout, but I’m hardly convinced it’s a certainty…