Informed Speculation

I have been stating for weeks to anyone that will listen that the Iranian situation has spelled the end (truly…I’m not exaggerating for effect) of the UN Security Council’s credibility.  If there was any doubt, along comes Jacques Chirac to give away the farm:

President Jacques Chirac has broken ranks with the US and Britain by calling for the suspension of UN Security Council action against Iran during negotiations over its nuclear programme.

In a radio interview yesterday before flying to New York for the UN General Assembly, the French President provoked a diplomatic storm by backing Iran’s demand that the Security Council should halt its involvement in the nuclear dossier.

The demand is spelt out in Iran’s confidential 20-page response to a Western offer of technological and economic co-operation in return for a freeze on nuclear activities which could lead to production of a nuclear weapon. The Independent has obtained a copy of the document.

M. Chirac suggested that the group of six nations involved in talks with Iran – Britain, the US, France, Germany, Russia and China – should “set an agenda, then start negotiations”.

“We must, on the one hand, together, Iran and the six countries, meet and set an agenda, then start negotiations. Then, during these negotiations, I suggest that the six renounce referring [Iran to] the UN Security Council and that Iran renounce uranium enrichment during negotiations,” M. Chirac said.

The French President is the first European leader to state publicly that a freeze by Iran is not a precondition for opening talks. The concession to Iran seems to be linked to events in Lebanon, where there had been concern that French soldiers may be targeted by Iran’s proxy militia, Hizbollah, over France’s previously hardline stance in the nuclear negotiations.

I’ll tell you this much, as a diehard Bush supporter: if Iran develops a nuclear capability without a fight, future generations will look upon this administration as a complete disaster, irrespective of other issues such as Iraq, Katrina, etc.  There is no more important issue in the world of foreign affairs.  Even an Iraq descending into chaos must take a back seat to a nuclear Iran.

Why? Because, quite simply, a nuclear Iran removes any chance for U.S. influence over the larger Middle East and sets Iran up as a regional superpower with effective veto power over the affairs of the entire region.  Moreover, it places the very existence of Israel under the largest threat it has faced since its founding.

Chirac has caved, let there be no doubt; it is incumbent upon the U.S. to act, multilaterally if possible, but outside of the UN and NATO.  That means a new treaty, alliance, or other mechanism whose sole purpose is to use every available method (including military action, but as a last resort) to prevent a nuclear Iran.

It’s that big of a deal; it must be done, and it should cut across partisan lines…