Informed Speculation

I’m sneaking this one in before I head to the airport: don’t miss David Ignatius’s report from the heart of Baghdad:

Gen. John Abizaid made headlines three weeks ago when he told Congress that civil war was a possibility in Iraq. Yesterday he went into two of Baghdad’s most dangerous neighborhoods to see whether a new U.S.-led offensive against the death squads and insurgents is making any progress.

Abizaid invited me and a CBS reporter to join him on this journey into the heart of the Baghdad battle zone. In what follows, I want to draw a picture of what we saw.

First, some background: This summer, any chance of success in Iraq seemed to be slipping away. Even Abizaid, who as head of U.S. Central Command has overall responsibility for the troops here, had to admit in his congressional testimony that the trends were going the wrong way. Baghdad was being terrorized by Sunni insurgents and Shiite death squads. More than 1,500 people were murdered in Baghdad in July, a daily average of 52 victims a day. The level of sectarian violence was so high that many wondered whether Iraq wasn’t already in a civil war. The new government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki seemed powerless to stop the downward spiral.

Abizaid and his commanders decided to focus on Baghdad, the eye of this hurricane of violence. They crafted a new plan called “Operation Forward Together” in which U.S. troops, backed by Iraqi forces, would wrest back control of the city’s most violent areas. This new battle of Baghdad began on Aug. 7…

Ignatius confirms what others have reported; the operation is making a huge difference.  Ignatius seems the same flaw that we all see, though; it’s coming from an American presence, not an Iraqi one:

What does the new battle of Baghdad tell us? I’m still mulling the answer, but my sense is that it’s something we already knew: With enough troops and aggressive tactics, American forces can bring order to even the meanest streets. But it’s only the Iraqis themselves who can stabilize these neighborhoods permanently. I’m sure about one thing: Iraqi leaders need to do what Abizaid did yesterday — escape the artificial world of the Green Zone and get back on these streets, where they can begin to lead by example.

It’s heartening and troubling at the same time: God knows, we must gain control of the security situation, but the American public is running low on patience with this war.  How to get this same results under Iraqi command seems to now be the paramount concern…