John McIntyre: Analysis Of Polls Indicating Dissatisfaction With Iraq Doesn’t Include The Decision ‘08 Factor

Okay, he didn’t word it that way - but I think he makes a valid point here:

The Left-wing netroots crowd along with the NY Times is all atwitter about the latest polling suggesting the public’s negativity toward the war in Iraq is at an all time high. The number one story on BuzzTracker for much of yesterday - with blog posts overwhelmingly from the Left - was a report on the CNN poll indicating opposition to the Iraq war was at an all time high. The NY Times’ write-up this morning on the NYT/CBS poll focuses heavily on Iraq and is titled “Poll Shows a Shift in Opinion on Iraq War.” However, as I mentioned following Lamont’s win in Connecticut, political pundits and reporters make a mistake by conflating rising unrest toward the situation in Iraq with support for the Dean/Pelosi/Lamont position on Iraq. This is because a portion of the negativity on Iraq is frustration from conservatives that the U.S. has not been aggressive enough with its enemies in Iraq and elsewhere. These people upset with Iraq, are not MoveOn.org type voters.

That’s quite right, as far as it goes…there is a certain amount of Iraq dissatisfaction coming from handwringers such as myself who worry whether we have the political will to see this through (I know Bush does, but does anyone else?).

Let’s not overplay this factor too much, though - clearly, Iraq is, at the moment, a deeply unpopular war (and it will remain so for the duration). I made my own position clear: I’d like to see a big change with Rumsfeld vacating for new blood. The silence from my regulars and elsewhere was deafening. I’m open to suggestions - but we do need some push between now and November to regain at least a little of the high ground on this issue…

5 Responses to “John McIntyre: Analysis Of Polls Indicating Dissatisfaction With Iraq Doesn’t Include The Decision ‘08 Factor”

1. 1 KM Says:
   August 23rd, 2006 at 8:30 pm

   Might as well throw chum in the water as Rumsfeld. You’re still gonna need a bigger boat.

   BTW, did I try to foist this post off on you? Can’t remember. Regards possibly bogus Iraq casualty reporting. Start here and follow the link at the bottom if your eyes haven’t glazed over.

2. 2 Shawn Says:
   August 23rd, 2006 at 9:54 pm

   I’ll repeat my complaint, we shouldn’t make a change just for change’s sake. If Rumsfeld is still doing a good job, he should remain in the post. If he doesn’t do a good job, then he should go. For right now, in my mind, he’s doing a good job.

3. 3 Mark Says:
   August 23rd, 2006 at 10:09 pm

   Yep, and you guys also challenged me to come up with a replacement name, and I haven’t taken the time to do so - as of now, we’re left with fatman’s suggestion of Sam Nunn - and I’ll throw in Joe Lieberman, but only if he loses in November…

4. 4 Dmac Says:
   August 24th, 2006 at 10:51 am

   Wait a minute, I thought Rummy should have been relieved shortly after Bush’s re - election; he needed a cabinet shake - up akin to Reagan’s 2nd term moves. As for Nunn, what a great and inspired choice that would be, but I don’t think Bush would have the courage to do it.

5. 5 mtl Says:
   August 24th, 2006 at 4:49 pm

   http://pollingreport.com/iraq.htm

   I don’t see the movement on Iraq from the public that CNN is assuming.

   CBS/NYT
   “Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?”

   CBS/NYT had it at 30% in Feb 06, and still has it at 30%. (There was no apparent fluctuation in the 8 polls conducted between the two points in time.)

   CBS/NYT
   “Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or should the U.S. have stayed out?”

   Did the right thing was at 45% in 7/04, it currently is at 43%.

   Newsweek?
   “. . . Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling the situation in Iraq?”

   May 04, 35% August 06, 34%.

   While the sentiment may not be manifesting itself for Bush, it begs the question who is really affected?

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