Decision ‘08

Rudy Grabs Early Iowa Lead

Up 13(!!!) over John McCain. Get the scoop at the Giuliani Blog…

9 Responses to “Rudy Grabs Early Iowa Lead”

1 mtl Says:
August 23rd, 2006 at 12:08 am
wow.

butterfly flapping his wings leading to a hurricane?

more significant than Rudy winning with (cough, cough) 30%,is than McCain only garnered 17% in iowa.

I give credit to Kos for anti-joe sentiment, and really got to tip my hat to Limbaugh, because Rush has been after McCain for a while. My caveats about Joe are starting to haunt me already. Conservatives are going down the same road that CT voters are.
2 mtl Says:
August 23rd, 2006 at 12:10 am
more simply,

dems purge joe, gop purges McCain, they win as independents in 08.
3 Chris J. Breisch Says:
August 23rd, 2006 at 7:15 am
I will support either Giuliani or McCain as a Presdintial candidate, but neither would be my first choice. By 2008, I will have endured 16+ years of Presidents who are far to the left of me on many issues, and I don’t consider myself that far to the right of center (could be I’m deluding myself though, I admit), and I’m getting tired of that. Certainly both Giuliani and McCain are even farther to the left on many issues than GWB.
4 Evan Says:
August 23rd, 2006 at 10:41 am
mtl, I think you overestimate the appeal of words like “independent” and/or “moderate”. If Ned Lamont was even a little more charismatic or could look like anything other than a deer in the headlights when he “answers” questions, Liberman would have a much harder go of an independent run.

That’s not to say they wouldn’t garner a significant percentage of the vote as a ticket, but it’s also worth noting that McCain will be anything but “purged” like Liberman by the GOP. If he loses the primary, it won’t be a Liberman style affair, with one issue dominating the race. Additionally, if he does win, McCain will be much easier to swallow for conservatives if a Mike Huckabee or Newt Gingrich is his VP choice, however, most would NEVER consider the other half of Sore Loserman as a legit VP choice, no matter how appreciative of his support for the President’s foreign policy they may be.

Nevertheless, Rudy’s big lead really doesn’t surprise me at all. I’ve never bought all the “McCain is the frontrunner” hype. I think Giuliani, despite his lack of socially conservative credibility, will be surprisingly popular with social conservatives as he moves to the right on appointment of judges (this will be the make-or-break issue for a lot of social conservatives) and citations of “federalism” with the same-sex marriage and abortion issues. If Rudy pledges to appoint strict constructionist judges a-la Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas (Like President Bush did), he is easily the man to beat.
5 Ryan Bonneville Says:
August 23rd, 2006 at 11:29 am
Hmm… 70% of Iowa caucus voters say they’re pro-life and something like 67% say they wouldn’t vote for someone who disagrees with them on that issue. Does anyone else think this will change when they start paying attention the fact that Giuliani is pretty radically liberal on abortion?
6 mtl Says:
August 23rd, 2006 at 12:32 pm
Evan-you are a dead on about the ‘viability’ of ned, were he to have an actual ounce of charisma, it would be a different race.

My point about McCain has been that he has been consistently and specifically targeted by Limbaugh-probably to a greater effect than DailyKos had in CT.

The pairing is unlikely, but if McCain goes to CT to help Joe, all bets are off.
7 mtl Says:
August 23rd, 2006 at 12:36 pm
while 70% may have been pro-life, abortion is a secondary issue, heading towards tertiary.

GWOT, economic policy, energy policy, foreign policy are now the meat and potatoes of conservative thought. Rudy’s ascendancy is not going to be affected by his view on abortion.
8 Ryan Bonneville Says:
August 23rd, 2006 at 12:47 pm
mtl: That’s why I gave the second number. 67% of Iowa caucus voters say they are unlikely to vote for someone whose position on abortion is different from their own - and that number is 78% for those who call themselves “pro-life”. Everyone keeps saying, “Giuliani will be fine - abortion doesn’t really matter.” Well, I don’t buy it for a second. As soon as his actual positions start getting some airplay, I expect his candidacy to go up in smoke.
9 Evan Says:
August 23rd, 2006 at 3:34 pm
I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss social/moral issues as “secondary”. Republican candidates often ignore such issues at their own peril (don’t forget the large percentage of people who made “moral values” their #1 reason for voting in 2004). I’m not sure why so many want to discredit abortion and same-sex marriage as backburner issues. I expect most who would dismiss moral issues would say things like immigration and terrorism are simply far more important, but they would be countered with the idea that the values of a nation (e.g. value of life, sanctity of family, etc.) drive the policies surrounding the other issues. Under that notion, marriage and family are extremely important to the foundation of society.

Ryan, I think there will be some kind of backlash to Rudy’s advocating of abortion and homosexual behavior, but if he can prove (or simply convince) that he’ll appoint judges who won’t legislate from the bench, then he is a force with which to be reckoned - even with the social conservatives.