Is The End Game To The Current Crisis Being Written?
Once again, I am endebted to the Jerusalem Post for its coverage of the current events in Lebanon. It was through the Post that I first realized the aim of the current military strikes (to force Lebanon’s hand in dislodging Hezbollah from the south), and it is through the Post that we can see a glimpse of the roadmap for the next few days:
Israel believes it has a 48-72-hour “window of opportunity” to pound Hizbullah and damage its operational capabilities before the world steps in and stops the fighting, senior diplomatic officials in Jerusalem said Saturday night.
The officials noted positively that Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora had said Saturday at a press conference that his government would reassert government authority over all Lebanese territory – an allusion to the possibility of deploying the Lebanese army in south Lebanon, which is effectively controlled by Hizbullah.
Senior sources in the Prime Minister’s Office said that dislodging Hizbullah from southern Lebanon and getting the government in Beirut to assert its authority over the area as called for by UN Security Council Resolution 1559 were among the primary goals of the IDF’s current campaign. However, the officials said, the two abducted IDF soldiers also needed to be returned.
“It is a good plan,” one senior diplomatic official said of Saniora’s statement. “The big question is whether he has the ability to do it.”
The official said the deployment of Lebanon’s army south would be a good way out of the crisis. “But Israel would also like more time to inflict more damage on Hizbullah’s operational capabilities,” he said.
“It’s an excellent declaration but he doesn’t need our permission…We have to see what they do and not what they say,” Vice Premier Shimon Peres told Israel’s Channel 2 TV. He said Lebanon has to prove it is serious by deploying on the southern border. “A foreign body has entered the area and it’s your job to get them out of there,” he said.
Am I, then, talking out of both sides of my mouth, agreeing on the one hand that Israel has limited aims, and arguing on the other that this is a war that will end with a showdown with Iran? Well, yes and no; it is true that it is easy to speculate too far in advance, and this latest story has caused me to wonder if I was too hasty in my assessment.
Nevertheless, if these recent events show us anything clearly, it is that Israel is not content to let an existential threat develop without the absolute maximum of resistance, armed and otherwise. Iran will not drop its nuclear program willingly. The current crisis may pass (it appears the next 2-3 days will be crucial), but the larger crisis still looms over all…
I think the other countries in the Me are taking notice of Iran and syria.
They realize they must guard against either’s influence on their own countries.
Iran is now the seat of anybody who wants to overthrow any moderate arab country. The Saudis fear wahabiist, funded by Iran making a grand play, if not for the royal family, then the oil fields. The jordanians have a massive palestinian population-if an outside force were to turen them against the ruling family…
This increased dabbling with other countries has the moderate ME countries scared. They are definitely outsiders to the Syrians and the Iranians, but worry that there may be people in their country who ARE privy to the info. In the past, there seemd a more united front, but this is becoming the great schism within the ME. Syria and Iran are going it alone, leaving the other moderate states.
Thomas Friedman is running around with his usual 3 month-the sky is falling-but what I see is sides forming. for the first time the nebulous threat of the US is overshadowed by the practical threats they face. That they realize that it is two of their brethern-(noted for their advocacy of terrorism) is a force for powerful change. The rulers of the non-aggressive countries realize that if it comes down to helping Iran and Syria, they may be protecting the very people who are capable of overthrowing them. The US could never do it, becuase they are not arabs. Syria and Iran can no longer be trusted.
[...] Good piece in the Washington Post that expands on the strategic moves Israel is making with U.S. consent, albeit one that contradicts the reporting of the Jerusalem Post of a 48-72 hour window for Israeli action in Lebanon: Israel, with U.S. support, intends to resist calls for a cease-fire and continue a longer-term strategy of punishing Hezbollah, which is likely to include several weeks of precision bombing in Lebanon, according to senior Israeli and U.S. officials. [...]
The ‘Arab street’ has always been considered a form of protection for the larger ME from the US. Even when going nito Iraq, folks like Chris matthrews suggested the Arab Street would rise up.
Iran and syria are seeking to unify the Arab Street, much as Saddam believed he could with funding for suicide bombers. Clearly Syria and Iran wished that Iraq still was active against Israeli, becuase now there are just the two countries.