Informed Speculation

…and it was a dud:

North Korea test-launched a Taepodong-2 missile early Wednesday along with two short-range rockets, but the long-range missile apparently failed, U.S. officials said.

North Korea’s preparations for a long-range missile test have been closely monitored for weeks. A senior State Department official told CNN the Taepodong-2, which some U.S. analysts fear could hit the western United States, appears to have failed in flight.

Military officials told CNN the long-range missile appeared to have failed less than a minute after launch.

Two smaller North Korean missiles were fired from a different site shortly before the larger missile was tested, U.S. intelligence and State Department officials said.

U.S. military sources said those two missiles landed in the Sea of Japan, one closer to Russia and the other closer to Japan.

The international reaction, thus far, is cautious:

“Today’s launches were done despite advance warning by the relevant countries,” the top spokesman for the Japanese government, Shinzo Abe, told reporters early Wednesday in Tokyo, Reuters reported. “This is a grave problem in terms of peace and stability, not only of Japan but also of international society,” Mr. Abe was quoted as saying. “We strongly protest against North Korea.”

At the United Nations, United States Ambassador John Bolton said in a statement that he was “urgently consulting” with other members of the 15-nation Security Council on the reports.

A White House spokeswoman said staff were urgently consulting on North Korea’s move but had no comment yet. “We have absolutely nothing at this point,” the White House spokeswoman, Dana Perino, told Reuters.

To me, the bad news outweighs the good; though the missile failed, an important signal was sent to North Korea, and it is one of weakness; we did not take out the missile, or the missile site, this time, and there is no reason to believe we will next time, either…