Decision ‘08

Is McCain The Frontrunner? Or Is It Rudy?

That’s the question Ryan Sager poses, as he takes issue with ARG’s polling on the 2008 Republican candidates (you can read the details here). Essentially, Ryan’s beef (a quite legitimate one, in my view) is that Rudy is being assumed ‘out’ of the race, at a time when almost no one is ‘officially’ running. Sager points out other polling that shows Rudy almost uniformly leading, and then explains why we should care:

[W]hy does all this matter? Well, because in crucial primary states such as Iowa and South Carolina, ARG polls show McCain with a commanding lead. But it’s likely this lead is entirely illusory, based more on a poor survey design than a reflection of reality.

It is my feeling that, if Rudy runs, he would be the frontrunner. McCain could beat him, but Rudy would start with an advantage - but if he intends to run, he needs to announce it before the end of 2006…

10 Responses to “Is McCain The Frontrunner? Or Is It Rudy?”

1 Fargus Says:
June 30th, 2006 at 2:46 pm
How does Rudy stand a snowball’s chance in Hades of winning the Republican primary?
2 Mark Says:
June 30th, 2006 at 3:30 pm
Well, turn the question around: How does he keep popping up at the top of the polls?…
3 Dennis Says:
June 30th, 2006 at 6:33 pm
Exactly. Maybe in the end he won’t be able to get the nod, but it seems silly to ignore him on the principle that he “can’t” win as long as he’s #1 or #2 in the polls.

As for Sager’s complaint, I can’t blame the pollster too much, based on the late April/early May dates of those polls. Up until a few weeks ago, I was pretty much convinced he wasn’t running, absent a complete GOP disaster this fall. (Although a case could be made a potential Gingrich run is probably no more likely, and yet he was included.) But Giuliani’s PAC recent launched a Web site that is nominally about getting Republicans elected this fall, but sure looks like a presidential campaign Web site to me. More importantly, I’ve seen it advertised on a number of conservative blogs, so he’s putting the word out.

I’d say he’s running. And unless one of the Allen/Romney/Huckabee alternatives start setting the world on fire sometime soon, I’d wager he’s got a slightly better shot than McCain. Anecdotally, I get the impression social conservatives like Rudy and wish he would be more like them; they dislike McCain and don’t care that he takes more of their positions. That, and Rudy’s reputation as the guy who cleaned up the open sewer of New York, goes a long way.
4 Muffin the Cat Says:
June 30th, 2006 at 8:25 pm
Rudy comes across as a “leader” much better than McCain. I trust him more. Go over to Strategic Vision and read their polls. Rudy leads in all states but one, Michigan. Now pay close attention to questions 22 and 23 in New York. 57% don’t want Hilda-*itch to run whereas 62% want Rudy to run. Question 20 is also interesting. Here’s the link.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/results.htm
5 fatman Says:
July 1st, 2006 at 1:16 am
For anybody who might be interested, McCain has taken up blogging here:

http://porkbusters.org/2006/06/we_need_to_stop_this_now.php#comments

The link takes you to the first comment; scroll up to read McCain’s post, or scroll down to read the comments, including a few choice words from yours truly.
6 fatman Says:
July 1st, 2006 at 1:23 am
Btw, I owe a hat tip for that info to Rightwingsparkle at

http://rightwingsparkle.blogspot.com/2006/06/had-to-run-in-and-post-this.html
7 Sean P Says:
July 1st, 2006 at 8:03 am
McCain has a head start on organization and endorsements, but Rudy has a tactical advantage in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

McCain skipped out of Iowa in ‘00 for reasons that made sound sense in that campaign but which bred quite a bit of resentment in that state. Also, McCain’s initial hostility towards the etanol subsidy and his subsequent reversal will probably not endeer him to Iowa voters. Rudy carries no such baggage.

In NH, McCain doesn’t have any baggage I am aware of, but his big win here in ‘00 makes this primary an absolute must win (as it is for Mitt Romney; Mass politicians are expected to win the NH primary). A second place finish in NH would probably be more damaging for McCain than a third place finish here would be for Rudy.
8 Sean P Says:
July 1st, 2006 at 8:06 am
Whoops! I meant the ethanol subsidy — although given the amount of pork barrel spending, there probably is a subsidy known as “etanol” as well. Typing with one hand while holding a newborn in the other is harder than I thought.
9 fatman Says:
July 1st, 2006 at 3:27 pm
Sean P said:

Typing with one hand while holding a newborn in the other is harder than I thought.

Not as hard, I’ll wager, as trying to type with one hand while eating a meatball submarine sandwich with the other.

And now you know why I’m “fatman”.
10 RealRepublican1854 Says:
July 15th, 2006 at 6:16 am
Sean,

Relative to your comment “McCain skipped out of Iowa in ‘00 for reasons that made sound sense in that campaign but which bred quite a bit of resentment in that state.”
McCain couldn’t have pissed anymore people off in Iowa by not showing up than W. did by showing up, Gore took the state and Kerry did too.

I’ll bet all the Changs in China McCain gets the nomination and wins the general.

McCain ‘08!!!