Morris: Lieberman Will Lose, If He Runs In The Primary
Dick Morris is a huge Joe Lieberman fan, as am I; and he wants to see him remain in the Senate, as do I. That gives the context for his advice: don’t give Lamont the chance.
Keeping Joseph Lieberman in the United States Senate is clearly in the national interest. One of the most ethical, sincere, thoughtful and balanced of senators, he stands as a monument to nonpartisan common sense in an increasingly shrill and polarized partisan environment.
But he is in the process of committing suicide. By insisting on running in Connecticut’s Democratic primary against anti-war candidate Ned Lamont, he is in a fight he won’t win and, in the process, destroying his chances in the general election, which he can win.
As my populist and liberal friend Bill Curry discovered when he defeated the Democratic Party establishment’s candidate for governor, Rep. John Larson, in the primary of 1994, primaries in Connecticut are notoriously polarized. The right dominates the GOP nominating process just as surely as the left controls that of the Democrats. This is no place for a centrist to thrive.
If Lieberman simply skips the primary and runs as an independent, forcing a three-way race, he will win overwhelmingly. The larger Connecticut electorate adores him and will happily desert either party to vote for his reelection.
But in an August Democratic primary, with its low turnout and ideologically skewed voters, he faces decapitation. As surely as an American soldier on patrol in Iraq, his very presence in the Democratic primary provides a tempting target for those who want to vent their frustration at American foreign policy.
Those who back Lieberman will stay home in a primary. Those who shine with passionate intensity against him will surely vote.
Seldom has a Senate race in a state so far from my own signified so much about my view on whether principle still has a place in politics. Whatever Lieberman does, if he is hounded out of office by the Nutroots®, they will crow incessantly about their victory…but it will be America’s defeat…
If Lieberman were to lose the primary, all he has to do is make a very public plea to his supporters to come down and sign the petition the next day.
He moves from a political loss, to one of the biggest shows of support in less than 24 hours.
I bet he has the commercial ready to go:
I’m Joe, if you want me in office, meet me and my supporters at place ‘x’(outside the place where he will register as an independent.) It will be one of the largest campaign rallies in CT history.
Can’t wait to hear another respected dem say, “I’m not leaving the party, the party left me.”
At cursory glance, morris discusses the implications for Lieberman extensively, but won’t touch the larger implication for the democratic party. I don’t trust his motives on this one.
It’s my understanding that if he wants to run as an independent, he has to file before the primary race. So he’s in the unenviable position of having to make a decision before the primary voters make it for him.
My guess is he’ll probably stick with the primary and take his chances, because if he takes the independent route and wins, he’s still something of a man without a party when he goes back to Washington, even if he agrees with the Democrats on most issues.
I’d also guess he’s now likely to win, but that’s mainly because I find Dick Morris has almost never given the right advice to any candidate since he became a pundit. I’m actually surprised he didn’t find a way to blame Hillary Clinton for Lieberman’s troubles.
“It’s my understanding that if he wants to run as an independent, he has to file before the primary race.”
Are you getting that from the Morris piece?
“Lieberman’s supporters argue that if he loses the primary he can always then run as an independent. Technically that is not true. He would have to file his nominating petitions as an independent before the primary.”
Let’s take a gander at wikipedia-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connecticut_U.S._Senate_election,_2006
“Since under CT election law the deadline to submit signatures for an independent candidacy is immediately after the August 8 primary either Lieberman or Weicker would need to declare their intentions to file well in advance of the outcome of that primary being certain.”
and
“Lieberman has suggested he might run as an independent if he loses the Democratic primary.”
I trust Lieberman’s interpretation of CT law, over Morris’, any day.
Morris says he has to file before the primary, but Lieberman thinks he can do it after. Something ain’t right.
Even swing state reads it, in part, like I do.
http://www.swingstateproject.com/2006/01/ctsen_lieberman.php
“Dear Joseph needs to study up on Title 9 of the Connecticut Code, specifically § 9-453i:
Submission to town clerk or Secretary of the State.
(a) Each page of a nominating petition proposing a candidate for an office to be filled at a regular election shall be submitted to the appropriate town clerk or to the Secretary of the State not later than four o’clock p.m. on the ninetieth day preceding the day of the regular election.
This means that independent candidates have to submit petitions by August 9th, 2006. It just so happens that the Connecticut primary is on August 8th. In other words, if Joe loses the primary, in order to run as an independent in the general, he’d have to file petitions the very next day.”
Thus he can lose the primary on the 8th, and convene a rally the next day-I think he could get the signature in about 3 hours-at what I previously said would be one of the biggest campaign rallies in CT history.
In all reality he will win the primary.
If he doesn’t, or it is in doubt, he gives one of the most moving concession speeches and then asks his down trodden supporters, “The battle will continue. I need 7500 people to come on down to the steps of ‘x’ and sign my petition to run as an independent-tommorow.”
Betting that he can’t get 7500 signatures in more than a few hours is a loser’s bet.
There’s a very nice park next to the Secretary of State’s Office-which would accomodate a very large crowd, along with TV cameras.
The clip of the day would be Lieberman’s march to the Capitol building from the park, signatures in hand.
Joe-mentum.(but he is going to win the primary anyway…)
Do you need a “fan” at the end of the first clause?
You wrote:
Melodrama much, Mark? As though the fortunes of our country hinge on the frailty of the ego of Joseph Lieberman? Isn’t it a vindication of democracy if, you know, the voters make a choice, either way it goes? Seems a bit contrary to that ideal that we share to claim that voters exercising their rights could in any way result in “America’s defeat.”
Tsk tsk.
AE, thanks – oops! Corrected – Fargus, I’m giving you my opinion – obviously yours differs. I do think it’s a defeat for America if one of our best senators is run out of town by a concentrated smear campaign.
Sure, America will survive, but it will be worse off, not better. Hence, a ‘defeat for America’…
Comrades,
Fargus wrote:
“Isn’t it a vindication of democracy if, you know, the voters make a choice, either way it goes? Seems a bit contrary to that ideal that we share to claim that voters exercising their rights could in any way result in “America’s defeat.” …”
It seems to me that that’s exactly the same sort of reasoning that voters in Germany had during Hitler’s campaigning. Nah, Hitler couldn’t possibly damage Germany, they thought. Probably the Palestinians that voted for hamas weren’t concerned that electing terrorists might endanger their nation-in-utero either….
Allowing the Nutroots® a victory in Conecticut would only encourage them, and further pollute the Congresional gene pool. This nation has been devalued enough by the leftist pond scum, and it’s time to practice some electoral reverse Darwinism and end this failed leftist experiment of theirs.
Respects,
Gwedd
Nutroots are forcing this and establishments Dems are facing their worst fears…they’re praying it won’t be a trend…but what an excellent maneuver for Democrats in Red States to follow…Democrat party split…faster please.
I live to edit.
I believe Godwin’s Law applies, and I automatically win this argument against Gwedd, right? I mean, a Ned Lamont = Hitler, the left = Nazis reference? Come on, dude. Grow up.
I’m with you in spirit, Fargus, but Godwin’s Rule has been so trampled now by years of Bushitler talk, I’m pretty sure it’s battered beyond recognition.
Hey, I didn’t say it. And I had been under the impression that it applied on a case by case basis.
[...] And a few words from a friend on the man who would be king Lieberman: Those who are most supportive of Lieberman and angry about the challenge he faces are people like David Frum and David Brooks. Why would hard-core Republican neoconservatives be so emotionally attached to defending Democrat Joe Lieberman? Why do pro-Bush, highly conservative Republicans such as blogger Mark Coffey proclaim themselves to be “huge fans” of Lieberman? Because far more than he is a Democrat or a “liberal,” Joe Lieberman is a neoconservative and therefore — on the issues that matter most — is their ideological and political compatriot. [...]
[...] …though there are those who would presume to answer for me – Glenn Greenwald, for example: Those who are most supportive of Lieberman and angry about the challenge he faces are people like David Frum and David Brooks. Why would hard-core Republican neoconservatives be so emotionally attached to defending Democrat Joe Lieberman? Why do pro-Bush, highly conservative Republicans such as blogger Mark Coffey proclaim themselves to be “huge fans” of Lieberman? Because far more than he is a Democrat or a “liberal,” Joe Lieberman is a neoconservative and therefore — on the issues that matter most — is their ideological and political compatriot. In the 1990s, Joe Lieberman’s positions on the dominant issues of the day may have rendered him “moderate to conservative,” but on the issues that matter most now — in light of the ideological realignment we have had in the wake of 9/11 — he is nothing of the sort. He is a neoconservative, and therefore the political enemy of those who oppose that philosophy. Why would opponents of neoconservatism possibly support the re-election of a neconservative? [...]