Informed Speculation

And thus the biggest will-he-or-won’t he act since Hamlet draws to an abrupt close:

The prosecutor in the C.I.A. leak case on Monday advised Karl Rove, the senior White House adviser, that he would not be charged with any wrongdoing, effectively ending the nearly three-year criminal investigation that had at times focused intensely on Mr. Rove.

The decision by the prosecutor, Patrick J. Fitzgerald, announced in a letter to Mr. Rove’s lawyer, Robert D. Luskin, lifted a pall that had hung over Mr. Rove who testified on five occasions to a federal grand jury about his involvement in the disclosure of an intelligence officer’s identity.

I’m quite pleased to have been mistaken in my reading of the tea leaves; my only regret is that this didn’t happen when the PlameGate panel was meeting at the YearlyKos. More reaction later…

UPDATE 8:30 a.m.: The great Tom Maguire, who rarely gets one wrong, but graciously accepts the fall for anticipating a Rove indictment, has this to say:

Two quick guesses as to why there was no indictment:

(a) The Libby indictment looks very much like a failed attempt to force Libby to cooperate, presumably by testifying against Dick Cheney.  Evidently, the prospect of a second failed attempt held little appeal for Fitzgerald.

(b)  The Armitage angle made a Rove indictment problematic except as a package deal (as I discussed on May 19).  Briefly, Richard Armitage, former deputy Secretary of State, had apparently leaked about Ms, Plame’s CIA affiliation to Bob Woodward in mid-June and Bob Novak in early July.  However, he seems to have only testified about the Woodward leak *after* the Libby indictment was handed down in Oct 2005, despite reminders and requests from Bob Woodward during 2004.  That looks a lot like obstruction and perjury, yet Special Counsel Fitzgerald has shown no interest in pursuing him.  Well, fine, but how can what Rove did (which amounted to forgetting about his talk with Matt Cooper of TIME) be considered indictable if Armitage’s behavior was not?