Informed Speculation

The MinuteMan spotlights the moving goalpost game taking place since Saturday’s ‘scoop’ by Jason Leopold that Rove had been (not might be, will be, but had been) indicted by Patrick Fitzgerald’s grand jury.

Marc Ash of truthout, the leftie forum/’news’ site that published the Leopold story, says the story has been confirmed by the MSM (you’ll pardon me if I find that less than ironclad proof – isn’t that right, Mr. Rather?):

I spoke personally yesterday with both Rove’s spokesman Mark Corallo and Rove’s attorney Robert Luskin. Both men categorically denied all key points of our recent reporting on this issue. Both said, “Rove is not a target,” “Rove did not inform the White House late last week that he would be indicted,” and “Rove has not been indicted.” Further, both Corallo and Luskin denied Leopold’s account of events at the offices of Patton Boggs, the law firm that represents Karl Rove. They specifically stated again that no such meeting ever occurred, that Fitzgerald was not there, that Rove was not there, and that a major meeting did not take place. Both men were unequivocal on that point.

We can now report, however, that we have additional, independent sources that refute those denials by Corallo and Luskin…We have been contacted by at least three reporters from mainstream media – network level organizations – who shared with us off-the-record confirmation and moral support. When we asked why they were not going public with this information, in each case they expressed frustration with superiors who would not allow it.

…The events at the office building that houses the law firm of Patton Boggs were not in fact a very well-guarded secret. Despite denials by Corallo and Luskin, there was intense activity at the office building. In fact, the building was staked out by at least two major network news crews. Further, although Corallo and Luskin are not prepared to talk about what happened in the offices of Patton Boggs, others emerging from the building were, both on background and off-the-record. There were a lot of talkers, and they confirmed our accounts. We do have more information, but want additional confirmation before going public with it.

We reported that Patrick Fitzgerald had, “instructed one of the attorneys to tell Rove that he has 24 business hours to get his affairs in order….” That does not mean that at the end of that 24-hour period, Fitzgerald is obliged to hold a press conference and make an announcement. It just means that he has given Rove a 24-hour formal notification. Fitzgerald is not obliged to make an announcement at any point; he does so at his own discretion, and not if it compromises his case. So we’re all stuck waiting here.

Make your own mind up about how credible any of this is – but I do tend to think Rove will probably be indicted now. Why?

(1) Stories like this, no matter how thinly sourced, give a little weight.

(2) The opinion of the MinuteMan, Tom Maguire, who has covered PlameGate better than anyone, blogger or MSM reporter, and who says there is a 70% chance Rove will be indicted this Friday or this coming Wednesday.

(3) The removal of part of Rove’s portfolio by the new Chief of Staff.

(4) The fifth grand jury appearance.

(5) Anecdotal evidence of a distracted Rove who has lost a lot of weight (a sure sign of stress, by my own experience – I was the skinniest when I was the most miserable).

Individually, none of these items are conclusive – come to think of it, they’re not conclusive collectively, either.

However, mark me down as one who has officially turned the corner – in the parlor game of guessing Rove’s fate, put my odds at 27-23 in favor of indictment (I should note that I’ll happily eat a whole pile of crow if I’m wrong)…