A Glimpse Of Things To Come?
Like the Ghost of Christmas Future, TIME’s Karen Tumulty and Mike Allen present a horrifying peak at the days ahead, if the election were held today:
In recent weeks, a startling realization has begun to take hold: if the elections were held today, top strategists of both parties say privately, the Republicans would probably lose the 15 seats they need to keep control of the House of Representatives and could come within a seat or two of losing the Senate as well. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who masterminded the 1994 elections that brought Republicans to power on promises of revolutionizing the way Washington is run, told Time that his party has so bungled the job of governing that the best campaign slogan for Democrats today could be boiled down to just two words: “Had enough?”
Iraq is driving nearly all the big indicators the wrong way for Republicans. In a Time poll conducted last week, Bush’s job approval rating was mired at 39%; 3 in 5 Americans said the country is headed in the wrong direction, and when those surveyed were given the choice between a generic Republican and a generic Democrat for Congress, the nameless Democrat won, 50% to 41%. The signs suggest an anti-Republican wave is building, says nonpartisan electoral handicapper Stuart Rothenberg, whose Rothenberg Political Report is closely followed in Washington. “The only question is how high, how big, how much force it will have. I think it will be considerable.”
What kind of horrors would a Democratic Congress bring?
…Democratic sources told Time…one of the first steps that a newly installed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would take would be to introduce legislation making college tuition more affordable for middle-class families, perhaps through tax credits and lower interest rates on student loans. Democrats would move immediately to tighten port security, seeking to have 100% of incoming container cargo inspected.
What’s so bad about that, you may say? Nothing at all…in fact, why not give every American a check for $250,000, while we’re at it? This is not a financially responsible message…we need to pull back from our spending binge, not accelerate it.
The real horror, of course, is that of endless attempts to bring the President down:
Administration officials say they fear that losing even one house of Congress would mean subpoenas and investigations–a taste of the medicine House Republicans gave Bill Clinton. “Everything will grind to a halt,” one said. That prediction could be a scare tactic designed to get out the g.o.p. vote. But Democrats say that if they are victorious in November, they plan to force Bush to be more accountable, and they intend to dig through records of contracts in Iraq, for homeland security and for the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Democratic Representative Henry Waxman of California, one of the most dogged critics of the Administration, would be in line to chair the House Government Reform Committee and could write witness lists instead of open letters to the West Wing. “Some of these ranking members have had 10 years to think about what they would do,” a Democratic official said. If Republicans can’t change the course of things soon, the Democrats may have their chance.
It’s an ugly picture, to be sure – but we can take solace, perhaps, in the fact that there is very little factual in the artcle – it’s more a Howard Fineman-esque regurgitation of the conventional wisdom.
Somehow I’m not greatly comforted…
As a libertarian leaning conservative I am delighted by the prospect of government gridlock: getting nothing done is vastly preferable to me than most of the proposals that come out of Congress and are signed by the President.
If this thinking, and the President’s poor polling numbers, holds for an extended period of time we can look forward to Republicans that face the electorate this November joining the ranks of those calling for the withdrawal from Iraq – not to mention Nancy Pelosi’s idiotic ideas about government funding for college tuition.
Most distressing to me, and the foundation of my disillusionment with the President and Republican Congress, is that there is no appreciable difference between the Parties in their tendency to increase government spending; there are just insubstantial differences in the target(s) of this spending.
So the dems are (over) confident and the GOP is scared?
Sounds strange given that the democratic party hasn’t had a sweeping election victory of this magnitude in quite some time.
The experts making the predicitions…no chance they say the actual seats that will be lost-they just have national polls for local elections.
I disagree about Iraq as a breaker for Republicans…
You can’t play lukewarm on it, when you are a candidate.
Question #1 for those running:
“Will you support continued funding for our mission in Iraq?”
Very difficult to say yes, if your platform is that it is hopeless. Nuance it, and then you have to explain what you would do different. Nuance it, and you lose the hard left and moderates…ask John Kerry.
Funny how no platform has been set up by the dems,
Bush’s will be tax cuts, stay the course, and getting some sort of action on immigration.
For the dems it is a little scarcer,
A commercial where they explain how they could micro-manage a war better isn’t going to do it.
If they have a 30 second sound bite drastically different form 02 and 04, let’s hear it.
Just noted it was in Time, which is again hyping global warming in the same issue…seems they would like to give the dems a bone to knaw on, to look good for their base.
Let me help Time, Mandy Grunwald, Matt Cooper out…
We MAY see Global warming in a hundred years.
I see foreign policy and immigration now.
Why is it that mainstream drive-by media doesn’t do stories on the trouble the Dumocrats are in only those wascily Wepublicans who are nothing but racists, homophobes & for dirty water & dirty air
“generic Republican and a generic Democrat for Congress, the nameless Democrat won, 50% to 41%. The signs suggest an anti-Republican wave is building, says nonpartisan electoral handicapper Stuart Rothenberg…”
But according to RCP, in November 05, the margin was 36-48. Maybe the use of ‘building’ is a little off.
“swing state of Pennsylvania”
since the past four presidential elections have gone Dem in the state, I don’t think it is truly a swing state.
“the government’s inept response to Hurricane Katrina”
looking at the ‘damage’ done to Bush in LA v. the democratic governor, I can’t help believe that the press is deluded.
Blanco went from 50% approval in 8/05 to a 2/06- 32%.(-18%)
Bush went from a 8/05 48% to 46% in 2/06.(-2%)
Way to read the polls, Time.
“Republicans could even lose the Tennessee seat of retiring majority leader Bill Frist to Representative Harold Ford, a Democrat. ”
And Lyndon LaRouche had a chance to be President. Ford can’t break 40%, let alone 50%.(there are several states where the GOP is in play, like MO and ND, but TN is the wrong contest to point to. Notice they also failed to mention NJ…not a good time to be a democrat there, running aginst the son of one of the most popular governors, (take note Santorum), when the newly appointed governor is increasing taxes to adjust for his increase in his budget.