Decision ‘08

Kos on 2006: Don’t Get Excited

Markos takes a look at the growing sentiment that the Democrats just might take Congress in November and throws a little cold water on the idea:

…In the House, Democrats under Pelosi’s leadership have been all but neutered. How many ethics complaints has Pelosi and her team filed? None. And they ostracized Chris Bell when he filed his complaints against DeLay. How did Pelosi react to Lois Slaughter’s seminal report on Republican corruption? She quickly and meekly pulled it from her website when Republicans raised a stink. She just attacked Feingold for introducing his censure resolution. And she’s leading the charge to destroy sites like this one by regulating them to death. The pattern is clear — target and eliminate any party individual or institution that stands up to the Republican juggernaut.

I think House Democrats in 2006 would be well served by casting about for a new leader, whether we win the House or not. And to think I was once a fan of Pelosi’s …

These risk averse Dems think that by merely having a pulse, voters will gladly rush to them to save them from Republicans. But in reality, voters (including much of the Democratic base) are disillusioned. Why vote for Democrats who haven’t shown an ounce of fight the last six years? What’s the point?

The Alito filibuster was supposed to be a disaster for Democrats. Somehow, their numbers didn’t suffer. Murtha was going to kill Dems by making them “look weak on defense”. But somehow, people seem to agree with him. Now, Feingold’s censure resolution is supposed to be a disaster for Democrats. Yet if that was the case, why are Republicans reacting so virulently against it?

Hmmm…sounds suspiciously like the old argument that the Dems don’t win because they’re not angry enough - ask your ol’ buddy Howard Dean how that one worked, Markos.

I was ridiculously optimistic the last two cycles, and saw that optimism shattered on election night. Democratic early numbers in both 2002 and 2004 were great. Not this great, but pretty darn good. And we saw how well the GOP closed. I don’t take anything for granted anymore. And in fact, I assume they can make huge gains in the final days of an election. Add in the general sense of malaise that currently seems to inflict the Dem base, and I’ve got a bad feeling about this election.

Not that we won’t make gains, because it’s hard to see how we can’t. But we won’t make the sorts of gains that we should be expecting given how bad things are for the GOP.

Ironic that I suddenly turn pessimistic when inependent observers are increasingly optimistic about Dem chances this Fall. Hopefully, I’m as wrong this time as I was the last two cycles.

That’s what worries me…

2 Responses to “Kos on 2006: Don’t Get Excited”

1 Dennis Says:
March 20th, 2006 at 2:29 pm
It’s possible he’s just be logical and recognizes that it’s probably a lot better for him to be a pessimist who is proved wrong instead of an optimist who is proved wrong. Or else he’s just in the down portion of his manic cycle.

Most likely this is just further evidence of the tension he feels living with one foot in the world of passionate advocates and another in the world of coldhearted strategists. He’s probably read the same stuff we’ve read that goes beyond the Pundit Lite theories and shows some built-in advantages that make turning this into 1994 difficult for Democrats, so he knows that much as he may wish it so, bad polling numbers for the president do not necessarily mean some sweeping realignment in the electorate.

But he’s also got to throw some red meat to the rabid, so he tossed in some lines about the Republicans being all bigots out to attack minorities. I’m surprised he didn’t go to the Diebold well too.
2 Amos Says:
March 20th, 2006 at 5:35 pm
Infallible reverse cassandra Markos is predicting a hard election for dems, this is terrifying.