Decision ‘08

Dick Morris: McCain No Frontrunner - Unfortunately

I disagree with much of this Dick Morris column, but I agree with a lot of it, too, so I’m recommending it as an interesting read, if nothing else:

You can’t be a front-runner for your party’s nomination and win 5 percent of the vote in a regional straw poll, finishing fourth, behind Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (Tenn.), Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Virginia Sen. George Allen. While McCain still leads in the national polls (not counting former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani), he is no genuine front-runner. He lacks the requisite enthusiasm he would need among core Republicans to cop that title.

He is, in fact, more of a stalking horse, a place to store voter preferences while the other candidates for the nomination break through their low thresholds of name recognition.

It’s a shame because McCain and Giuliani are the only two frequently mentioned candidates who could actually get elected and defy the likely disaster the GOP faces in ’08.

The first part of that is patently absurd - that straw poll was an interesting amusement, and nothing more.

He may be right, though, and I’ve argued it before, about his conclusion. Morris continues with a quick dismissal of the other candidates, save one:

After the Republican Party gets shellacked in the congressional elections of 2006, the wisdom of nominating someone who can attract votes outside the Republican base will become increasingly apparent. And none of the candidates other than McCain or Giuliani can do so.

Frist, ethically compromised at the outset, has shown his limitations too graphically as majority leader to hope for the nomination. The fact that he could only get 1 vote in 3 in a straw poll in his backyard tells us something.

Romney probably carries enough baggage with him from Massachusetts to make his pursuit of the Republican nomination futile. You cannot be elected governor of the People’s Republic and hope to keep your positions conservative enough to win the Republican nomination.

George Allen, the creature of the party’s right wing, could win the nomination but not the election. Hillary would chew him up and spit him out.

Anecdotal evidence and gut feelings tell me that Morris is right that the Republicans are about to get our heads handed to us in November - yet number-crunching analysts have shown pretty persuasively that it will be next to impossible for us to lose control of Congress…but I digress…Morris is on the money with Frist and Allen, I believe, though I’m not sure about Romney.

So who does Morris recommend? Who else?:

Which brings us back to the candidate who wasn’t there — Condoleezza Rice. Moving up in the polls (now tied with Rudy and McCain for first place), Rice could both be nominated and elected. Her ability to handle herself on an international stage is increasingly obvious, and her more authentic claim to the title of self-made woman than the phony, Bill-dependent résumé of Mrs. Clinton both are making her more and more attractive nationally.

The first phase of the GOP campaign will feature the fall from the top of McCain and, if he runs, Giuliani. The next phase will be characterized by doubts as to whether any of the remaining candidates are up to the task. And then, if the GOP voters are smart, they will draft the only winning candidate they could nominate, the secretary of state.

Hey, it’s an attractive scenario, but still a long-shot…no, for now, my money remains on McCain, unless Rudy starts making more noise…

19 Responses to “Dick Morris: McCain No Frontrunner - Unfortunately”

1 peter Says:
March 15th, 2006 at 4:53 pm
I think it would be an interesting move if either the Republicans or the Democrats looked to the business world for a Presidential candidate in 2008. A younger Warren Buffett, a less geeky Bill Gates, a more compassionate Jack Welch. It is pretty apparent that the candidates in both parties are less than inspiring – I think someone with proven leadership skills and unquestioned integrity could make the other candidates look like bickering dwarfs. Micheal Bloomberg?
2 Mark Says:
March 15th, 2006 at 4:58 pm
Why take Bloomberg when you can have Giuliani? A nationwide smoking ban, perhaps?…sorry, try again, as far as I’m concerned…
3 Mark Says:
March 15th, 2006 at 5:00 pm
Of course, just to be clear, my tongue is somewhat in cheek - I realize you’re arguing for Bloomberg as a businessman and not as a mayor of New York…
4 Mark Says:
March 15th, 2006 at 5:02 pm
Don’t ask me why I put this in three seperate comments, but one final thing…I don’t find all the candidates uninspiring - I think Rudy G., and even McCain are very inspiring individuals, though, of course, in vastly different ways…but unless Lieberman runs again, I’d agree there are no inspiring Democrats running…
5 Dennis Says:
March 15th, 2006 at 5:13 pm
His argument seems incoherent. McCain and Giuliani can’t get the nomination because the base doesn’t like them. Any support they’re getting in the polls now are just placeholders, in the hopes that someone else will break out. But he assumes Republicans will get shellacked in the midterms, and none of the other pretenders will break out, hence the Draft Condi movement.

But it seems to me that if the Republicans do get shellacked this year, doesn’t that make it more likely McCain or Giuliani will get the nod? Why would Republicans be inclined to turn to someone seen as more of an heir to the folks who brought on the shellacking?

The only way his scenario would seem to play out is if you assume that by November of this year, McCain and Giuliani will have seen all their support evaporate, so they’ll no longer be options and Rice will get the nomination by default. I think it is possible they’ll lose some of this nominal support by primary season, but I can’t see that support disappearing so soon, for no reason. Given that Morris has written a book predicting a Hillary vs. Condi race, I understand why he’s pitching this, but it sure reads more like his own wishful thinking rather than an honest guess at how this will play out.

Man, this was the guy Bill Clinton used to turn to for political insight? I hope he didn’t pay him too much. Or else maybe Morris used to be much shrewder before he became obsessed with defeating Hillary Clinton.
6 Sean P Says:
March 15th, 2006 at 5:18 pm
Morris has been wrong many times before, but to say support for McCain is nothing more than a stalking horse is truely a new level of idiocy.

People in polls say they support McCain because they support McCain. Period. I’d be the first to admit that early opinion polls give an unfair advantage to candidates with high name recognition, and that an as-yet unknown conservative challenger will surge as the primaries get underway, but I seriously doubt that there is a statistically significant number of voters who say they support McCain yet have no reason to do so.

And another thing. In 2000, John McCain won seven Primary states. That’s more than Bush 41 won in 1980 and Edwards won in 2004 COMBINED. And both Bush 41 and Edwards were nominated for the #2 slot on the ticket based on their perceived strength in the primaries.
7 dmac Says:
March 15th, 2006 at 5:26 pm
Remember, this was the same guy who let a prostitute listen in on his conversations with the President of the United States. First class sleazeball, and his conversion to the GOP side of the aisle just makes him seem like another opportunistic political operative. Talk about biting the hand that fed you…

Peter, I don’t know if a successful businessman can really make a national run - too many compromises are involved, and guys like Welch aren’t usually enamored of kissing other people’s behinds. Bloomberg has managed the feat quite nicely, but remember that he was a Democrat for most of his career, and that helped him in the mayoral races. For relevant examples of noted failures, witness the Perot and Forbes candidacies. Too much arrogance and hubris for them to really connect with the populace, and when things get messy and don’t go their way, look out.
8 peter Says:
March 15th, 2006 at 5:43 pm
I would be thrilled to vote for Bloomberg for President. I would vote for him over Hillary or any of the other Democrats in a flash. I think he has done a terrific job as mayor, and is one of the few politicians who does what is best for the citizenry and not necessarily what is best for him personally (even if it does lead to smoking bans – I’m not a big fan of the nanny state, but I can see his point).

Perot was not elected because of his peculiarities and his ideology, although he was notably successful for a third party candidate. Forbes was a one-note candidate, and a flat tax is not the ticket to stardom. I met him once, and he was as dull as you would expect him to be.

I voted for Rudy twice when I was a New York resident. He has a smarminess and a sense of self-righteousness which I don’t think will play well in a national election. Also, having announced his divorce in front of cameras (his ex-wife found out by watching the news) won’t endear him to lots of female (and male) voters. His strong stance for gay rights will also alienate a lot of people, if for the wrong reasons. He looks a lot better from a distance than he does from up close.
9 Mark Says:
March 15th, 2006 at 5:49 pm
Well, beauty is in the eye of the beholder - even for politicians…
10 Colin Says:
March 15th, 2006 at 5:57 pm
People see what they want to see in these politicians, Peter. Who we elect reflects the mood of the electorate, not necessarily the strength or weakness of that individual candidate. The electorate in 2004 wanted a hard-ass, and went for Bush. Clinton, too, reflected the mood of the electorate in the 1990s. World events will shape who becomes president in 2008. If the country is focused outward, look for another R in the White House, almost no matter who the candidate is. If the country is focused inward, look for a D to win it. The parties have established their reputations, now its basically up to the American people to decide what characteristics they want for the next term, focusing outward or focusing inward.
11 Ryan Bonneville Says:
March 15th, 2006 at 6:55 pm
This Condi talk strikes me as entirely premature. First, does anyone have any idea what her politics is like? Sure she’s with Bush on the GWOT, but how does she feel about affirmative action or abortion? Seems to me that she could torpedo her candidacy just by speaking.

Also, I don’t mean this to indict the Republican Party, but a black woman winning the nomination? I just don’t think so. There are plenty of fine people in this country who aren’t even thinking about burning crosses who see a black woman and think, “That’s novel, but I’m not voting for it.”

Condi is a big, fat no way. Plus, she isn’t beating Hillary in polls NOW. What makes anyone think that’s going to get better? She can’t get the nomination and, even if she did, I’m not even sure she can beat Hillary, let alone someone like Mark Warner.
12 peter Says:
March 15th, 2006 at 7:02 pm
So I guess Oprah won’t get the nomination either?

Too bad the nominating convention won’t be like the movie Putney Swope (the CEO of an ad agency dies, out of self-interest everybody votes for the guy least likely to succeed him – the black art director – who, of course, becomes CEO and turns the agency upside down).
13 dmac Says:
March 15th, 2006 at 7:35 pm
How about The Spook Who Sat by the Door - great, mostly - unknown movie. Similar themes here.
14 Aaron Says:
March 15th, 2006 at 9:26 pm
This is the same Dick Morris who said that he was certain beyond a shadow of a doubt that Hillary Clinton would be Kerry’s VP, right?
15 Muffin the Cat Says:
March 15th, 2006 at 10:09 pm
Morris seems to be off in left field these days. He appears to be infatuated with Condi. I did read his books on both Clintons. Based on my reading he has no love for Hillary. This election is still 2 3/4 years away. Too much can happen in that time.
16 Grant W. Hastings Says:
March 16th, 2006 at 1:31 am
Morris has books to sell. That is the bottom line.

McCain has no chance at the GOP nom? See below:

American Research Group 2008 Republican Presidential Primary

Likely Primary Voters SC

McCain 42%
Gingrich 9%
Romney 5%
Frist 2%
Pataki 1%
Allen 1%
Brownback - - - - - - -
Hagel - * - * * - -
Huckabee - - - - - - -
Tancredo - - * - - - -
Undecided 40%

McCain leads by 33% at this point among likely primary voters in SC in this poll.
17 Sean P Says:
March 16th, 2006 at 12:14 pm
At the risk of giving ammunition to the more conservative Republicans who oppose my preferred candidates (McCain/Rudy), I will say this: while George Allen, Sam Brownback and Bill Frist are DOA as conservative challengers and Mitt Romney’s Steve Forbes-like about face won’t fool anybody (or at least not enough people), Mike Huckabee strikes me as the one conservative who might plausibly emerge to win the nomination.

Unlike Allen, he was governor of a state long enough for his record to be fairly evaluated and, as it happens, it compares quite favorably to Hillary’s husband. Plus, his record as governor would give Republicans a good angle for re-hashing Whitewater and the other shady business dealings that got so many Clinton allies in trouble (this would also help to deflect the taint of Abramoff/Delay).* I still think McCain is the stronger general election candidate, but Huckabee at least wouldn’t be guaranteed loser either.

* Of course, none of this works in Huckabee’s favor if Hillary isn’t the nominee, but what are the odds of that happening?
18 Grant W. Hastings Says:
March 16th, 2006 at 1:26 pm
I’ve met Huckabee before and I felt that he was a genuinely a good guy. His record as governor is a good one.

I think he would be a great candidate against a Northeastern liberal who isn’t Hillary - Like Kerry, Dukakis, etc… Those types.

The problem with Huckabee is the polls I’ve seen in AR have him losing to Hillary there by a significant margin in a hypothetical matchup. Dem still have a 2-1 registration advantage there, even though it is a Red State. I would be reluctant to nominate anyone who isn’t a shoo-in in their home state (Rudy being an exception against Hillary).

He also raised taxes as governor which would be a great issue for the opposition.
19 Grant W. Hastings Says:
March 16th, 2006 at 1:32 pm
Also on Huckabee…

The GOP nominee Asa Hutchinson is likelyto lose in November. Huckabee just doesn’t seem to have any coattails which is odd for someone who is billed as being as popular as him.