Informed Speculation

Among the pieces I couldn’t cover yesterday because of my Oscar day-long thingie was this Howard Fineman piece on Rudy G. Fineman plays it pretty straight up, but still manages to squeeze out an interesting morsel or two:

The effect of a Rudy run? There are those who think the presence of a pro-choice, pro-gay-rights New Yorker would help McCain by making him seem to be a comparative godsend to evangelicals. But the two men, who are personally close, occupy the same macho shelf space, and the clear hope—and expectation—among McCainanites is that Rudy will ultimately stand down. Some other Republican insiders join them in thinking (hoping) that Giuliani would rather continue raking in piles of cash building his business empire ($100,000-a-gig speeches, security consulting, investment banking and regulatory law). They note that he hasn’t made any of the usual groundwork-laying moves, such as lining up a media firm or a coordinator in New Hampshire.

…A few weeks ago in Florida, he did the drop-by of all drop-bys as the “surprise guest” at the annual convention of the Global Pastors Network. He wowed them with his energy and his revival-style witness to his faith in Jesus. Ralph Reed, a godfather of religious conservatives, thinks Giuliani’s charisma may help him overcome his social-issues liberalism in the Bible belt. “He can take control of a room better than any politician I’ve seen,” said Reed. The key moment with the pastors was in the private holding room, where he spent quality time among their leaders. Giuliani told them that the keyto his final decision on whether to run would be whether he thought he could raise enough cash…

Though I would welcome a Giuliani candidacy, I’m becoming increasingly doubtful – he’ll have to start making more moves, by, say, the end of summer, or it may be too little, too late…