Mixed Messages From Iraq
Those hoping to divine the flow of events in Iraq have both hopeful and depressing news to contend with. Violence surged again today, as dozens more were killed, despite the ongoing curfew. However, the Interior Minister says the violence has been somewhat exaggerated, and the U.S. Ambassador is working hard to bring the parties together:
Mr. Khalilzad seems to be doing his best to use diminishing U.S. influence on the Iraqi parties. Importantly, he has warned that U.S. funding for Iraqi police and security forces could be withdrawn if the Interior ministry and its death squads are not cleaned up. That’s a good place to draw a line: Mr. Hakim and his Shiite allies should not expect that U.S. resources, and U.S. troops, will continue to defend them from al-Qaeda and Sunni insurgents while they pursue sectarian agendas — whether it be the murder of Sunnis in Baghdad or the attempt to create a Shiite Islamic statelet in southern Iraq. The good news is that those leaders have looked into the chasm of civil war and decided to take a step back. Now they must understand that the only alternative is a political compromise that preserves the possibility of a united and democratic Iraq.
I’ve been predicting civil war since the beginning of all of this. Sooner or later its going to happen. Its going to feel great when I’m finally vindicated. Will be a nice slap in the face for all the Americans who lost their lives trying to do something pointless.
Hokie, you’re engaging in satire, I hope?
Not really.
Iraq is ethnically and religiously divided. These people haven’t liked, trusted, or otherwise got along for thousands of years and to try and cobble them together into a represenative is simply not going to work in my opinion. I think civil war is not only likely but it is inevitable. I also think that in the end Iraq is going to fragment into mini-states with the Kurds in the North and Shiites in the South. The Sunnis being a minority that don’t really have a home area will probably suffer the most as they will not have much access to any of Iraq’s oil.
A civil war would basically undo everything that we have done. Quite frankly it will be a disaster.
Represenative government rather. Apparently, my hangover adversly affects my typing :\
…but surely you don’t mean the part about it will feel great to be vindicated (i.e., to see Iraq descend into civil war), and the bit about the slap in the face of the dead Americans?…
Yes, that part was a little bit satirical.
I’m at a loss as to why an obvious point has rarely been raised by these actions – do they not bespeak of a desperate ploy by the insurgents at this point? Think about it – after all the bombings, kidnappings and beheadings, they’ve still failed to win over a majority of the Iraqi people to their cause. This is the type of incident that’s not designed to win over anyone, but it is intended to just throw more sh-t on the wall to see what sticks.
This is not a show of strength, but of a weakness that is growing weaker by the day.