Larry Sabato: 2006 A Democratic Year, But…
Larry Sabato, who you may recall seems to foresee a Mark Warner vs. John McCain 2008 (and it’s certainly possible), now takes a look at 2006, starting with the Senate, and sees the proverbial good news - bad news for the Dems. The good is that he sees them gaining 2 or 3 seats. The bad is that, of course, that doesn’t give them control.
His prediction hinges on Ohio and Montana, it seems to me:
Ohio is a Republican disaster area, thanks to the enormous unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft. While Taft may have the greatest negative effect on GOP chances to hold his statehouse seat, Senator Mike DeWine’s race for reelection also has the potential to become competitive. DeWine begins as a shaky favorite, pending the outcome of a potentially divisive Democratic primary match-up to choose his opponent. Yet if there is any Democratic tsunami in 2006, the wave will break first over Ohio.
Montana’s crusty GOP Senator Conrad Burns has substantial ties to the scandal-drenched lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Nearly defeated for reelection in 2000, Burns is a major Democratic target in a state that has seen a drift to the Democrats.
That sounds about right…if anyone goes from Abramoff ties, it appears it will be Burns up first…I’m not convinced, however, that Dewine can’t pull out Ohio.
My current thinking: Dems + 2 in the senate, with Burns being one, and the other one coming from…somewhere…
2 Responses to “Larry Sabato: 2006 A Democratic Year, But…”
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February 1st, 2006 at 11:52 am
possible. but what about the Maryland seat, and the open seat in Minnesota? I think the GOP has as many chances to take back seats as we have to lose. DeWine losing is very iffy to me. I still think it is possible for Republicans to even pick up a seat or two. it all depends on the next 6 months. if the war is seen as being won, which it is, and people see the Democratic SCOTUS fit as a party attribute, conservatives can still ride this out. reading the Kos site and a few others, there are Dem’s out there who are fed up with the huge shift to the left. some elected officials are openly talking about it. both parties may have some tough times in the near future.
February 6th, 2006 at 2:55 pm
Folks, Santorum, the #3 Repug in the Senate, is all but gone, so that is one conservative down. With Burns, Chafee, and Frist’s open seat all in play, the Dems stand possibly to pick up several seats, but not enough to retake the Senate yet, unfortunately. With a little luck, Kyl and/or Ensign will become further vulnerable, thus opening more options for the good guys to take back the Senate. Don’t underestimate how far disenchantment with Iraq and the Abramoff scandal is reaching (particularly the former).