Decision ‘08

Generic Ballot Poll Shows Broad Preference For Democrats

The new AP/Ipsos poll shows Democrats are favored 49-36. The conventional wisdom says two things about polls of this sort: (1) they don’t matter, because people don’t vote generically, they vote for their own incumbent, except in rare cases, and (2) nevertheless, anything in the double-digits is troublesome.

Many Republicans take comfort in the bumbling nature of the Democrats to save us; it’s true there is a strong precedent, but it’s not very confidence-inspiring. It’s a good ways yet to November; we have to bring that gap down to the single digits.

5 Responses to “Generic Ballot Poll Shows Broad Preference For Democrats”

1 Muffin the cat Says:
January 6th, 2006 at 11:37 pm
Powerline commented on the same poll however they stated that the poll was worthless in their opinion because they surveyed 12% more Demon-rats than Republicans. The chances of Muffin voting for a Rat this fall are zero.
2 Fred Says:
January 7th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Party identification can theoritically change from poll to poll but Ankle Biting Pundit pointed out that this poll had other problems that are harder to laugh off:

For example:

Religion - “a whopping 19% of respondents had “no” religion, while in 2004 only 10% of voters had “no” religion, and they voted overwhelmingly for Kerry (+36%).”

Age of Respondents

Income Level of Respondents - “In this poll 15% of respondents made under $15,000 per year. In 2004, only 8% of voters were in this income bracket, and voted 63-36% for Kerry.”

Marital Status - “In this poll, only 56% of respondents are married. In 2004, 63% of voters were married, and voted 57-42% for Bush.”

Geography

Race

Either pro-Bush groups where under-represented or Pro-Kerry groups were over-represented. In any event, there isn’t an election scheduled for January 2006.
3 Mark Says:
January 7th, 2006 at 12:59 am
Thanks for the comments, Fred and Muffin; good stuff…
4 Amos Says:
January 7th, 2006 at 6:28 am
Watch democratic underground wet themselves over this poll. Funny, I seem to remember similar euphoria just befor they got beat on ‘04. They’ve since explained that to themselves by claiming the vote was rigged.
5 dmac Says:
January 7th, 2006 at 11:22 am
I was under the impression that Harris, Zogby and Gallup did the best job of polling, at least in terms of completeness and objectivity.

Anyone have polls along similar lines from these guys lately? Couldn’t find anything…