What Presidential Hopeful Had The Best (and Worst) 2005?
Chris Cillizza’s WaPo blog is becoming an essential resource for political junkies. Today, he looks back on ’05 as it related to 2008 hopefuls. Read the whole post, but his best and worst I would largely agree with: Mark Warner and Bill Frist.
What about the worst, on the Democratic side? I would have to say Howard Dean. I know he’s not a ‘declared’ candidate, but who is, this early on? Dean’s poor handling of the DNC is largely responsible for the inability of the Democrats to capitalize on what has been a brutal year for Bush politically, and he has proven to be far more of a liability than an asset (another victory for the progressives!).
On the Republican side, I would say Rudy G. had the best 2005, and he did it by smartly staying largely incognito. There is no need for someone with Rudy’s name recognition to get out in the arena this early and make positions and statements that can later be used to tar him. McCain and Clinton can’t help it; as current office holders, they have to make a stand. I’d advise Rudy to follow the same path in 2006; the stratagy might be described as ‘out of sight, out of sniping range’….
You are so right about Rudy–what he can do in 06 is campaign with Republican candidates around the country thus sowing the seeds of a campaign without making lots of appearances on talk shows…
And how ’bout that investigation? Good for the DoJ!
Giuliani must have done a good job of staying out of sight; Cillizza didn’t even bother mentioning him!
I understand why some people think Giuliani has no shot in the primaries, though I disagree with that conclusion. But still, it seems a bit odd that while he continues to come in first or second of most GOP polls, Cillizza ignores him.
I think McCain had an incrementally good year. It seems to me he still has a lot of enemies among Republicans, but I’ve also been reading more stories from potential opponents who grumpily acknowledge he may very well be the nominee. Sometimes the most important trick in politics is to make the unimaginable become the probable, just by refusing to disappear. That’s how we’ve wound up in a situation where we all acknowledge the former first lady has a good shot of being the next president, something that seemed only possible in the imagination of the most fevered Hillary lovers and haters a few years ago.
Dennis, well said; you’re absolutely right on all counts…
I think Rudy needs to do one thing in 2006, and that’s begin his triangulation on social issues that will be necessary to win the GOP nod in 2008.
Rudy already has a solidly conservative record on fiscal issues, government reform, and law and order. Once the “base” learns of his tax cuts while Mayor of NYC, his attempts to privatize various government services, and his spending restraint, they’ll rally to him as a conservative savior when faced with the threat of the White Witch, Hillary Clinton.
Rudy’s big liability isn’t his personal life; the man is over 60 and happily married, and we’ve all learned that you can pretty much do anything you want in the past nowadays and brand it a “youthful indiscretion.” No, Rudy’s big liabilities are social issues. Guns. Abortion. Gay marriage. Abortion. Immigration. Did I mention abortion?
Rudy can’t just change positions on these. He’ll be crucified during the primaries. Instead, he must *triangulate* — take positions that will keep conservatives AND moderates happy without seeming to abandon his longheld personal beliefs. The best way to do this is to embrace social federalism: the idea that, while Rudy himself may have supported abortion funding or gun control as Mayor, he doesn’t think these are national issues and won’t act on them as president. Instead, Rudy can say, social issues are state issues, and each state should be able to decide its own laws on gay marriage and civil unions and partial birth abortion. Which, of course, means that he’ll be glad to appoint more John Robertses to the Court: champions of judicial restraint who are highly intelligent and are acceptable to conservatives without being ideologues. That should be enough to get at least 51% of Republican votes during the primaries. He won’t get the Santorums, but he doesn’t need them. He just needs a majority. And once he has the nomination, the Santorums have a choice between Rudy — who will appoint John Roberts clones to SCOTUS — or Hillary, who will appoint Ginsberg clones to SCOTUS. The choice will be clear. Giuliani will maintain 85% of GOP support, win 60% of independents, 20% of Democrats, and have the biggest electoral college victory since the 1980s.
Dave, thanks for the thoughts – nicely done and you make some excellent points.
2005 was a big year for Secretary of State Condoleezzza Rice. Ebony Magazine put her at the top of their 100 Black Leaders list, Forbes magazine placed her as THE MOST POWERFUL WOMAN IN THE WORLD, ( as in 2004), to a possible cover on Time magazine as supported by Grover Norquist and Donna Brazille, and recently was listed as the 3rd most admired woman in our nation. As she continues to do her job with international affairs and foreign policy, the world newspapers continue to report her travel; as an example from the African news today, that Secretary Rice will be witnessing Ellen Johson-Sirleaf being sworn in a President of Liberia on January 16. It also reported that as a small child, Condi lived in Liberia for a time with her aunt who taught at the University of Liberia. Madam Secretary is a hardworker, as noted by the all-night effort to resolve the Gaza Strip border crossing and she told the guys, “I am not going anywhere until this work is done”. Tough, strong-willed, backbone of steele; all pieces of the heft which makes Condoleeza Rice one of the top contenders for president in 2008. Do you doubt this claim? Then explain why national polls for the past year have included her name with Rudy and McCain? She has top tier status, 90% name recognition, 60% job approval ratings, and is admired by people around the world. Call it Rock Star status or just plain respect for her success, Condoleezza Rice is a self-made woman, who did not get her job based on who she was married too. Nor does she have support for 2008 based on who she is married to, as in, NO HUSBAND BAGGAGE. Did you all hear about that citizens group which created a TV ad supporting Condoleezza Rice for President which played on the September 27th premiere of “Commander in Chief” on ABC? The TV ad made headlines and put Condi 2008 into the minds of many people in the United States. She is one of the key Republicans to watch over the next 2 years.