The Fix Is In For 2008
Writing in his column/blog at the Washington Post, Chris Cillizza offers the following list as the 12 candidates to watch for 2008:
Democrats – Bayh, Clinton, Edwards, Fiengold, Kerry, Warner
Republicans – Allen, Frist, Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Romney
Well, I haven’t done any handicapping lately, so let’s take a look at those candidates.
First, the Democrats – Cillizza wisely leaves off Bill Richardson, who has about as much chance as I do of getting the Democratic nod, but he would have been wiser to leave off Kerry and Edwards, who have even worse odds…Bayh, Warner, and Clinton remain the candidates to watch, with Feingold getting all the Daily Kos/Howard Dean/The Nation/Village Voice progressives all hot and bothered, but registering zero impact with the rank and file. Al Gore may sneak in and fight Feingold for the right to sabotage the party by pandering to the progressives…
Right now Clinton keeps the edge, but Warner is closing fast, and Bayh is a solid, but solidly trailing, third…
For the elephants: kudos for not only including Huckabee, but for recognizing why his candidacy has proven surprisingly popular, but let’s face it; the giant elephants in the room are McCain and Rudy G. Forget Frist, and (I’m going WAAAAYYYY out on a limb here), look for Romney to be Rudy G.’s VP, if you really want to get some hot early betting action going. Allen can’t compete with Rudy G.’s star power, and McCain is just too unloved by conservatives…Giuliani/Romney is the most likely ticket, three years out…
I’m not so sure about Giuliani/Romney. It’s hard for me to imagine the Republicans nominating not one but two Northeastern blue staters, particularly when some conservatives are already giving a Giuliani nomination the stinkeye. Although I guess you could argue the tactic worked with Clinton and Gore, who both came from Southern states that, if not quite as red as they are today, were on their way.
Maybe my problem is Romney doesn’t excite me as a candidate. I get the impression he’s going out of his way to build up his social conservative street cred, but if Giuliani needs a traditional-values social conservative to balance out the ticket, it seems to me he’d be better off choosing someone with a proven track record in that department. In other words, a southern conservative.
I also suspect that the veep nominee will not be a fellow candidate. Most of the time the veep candidates were not rivals. So if it’s Giuliani, I’d guess he’d choose someone like Mark Sanford of South Carolina or Haley Barbour of Mississippi. A Giuliani/Barbour campaign would be interesting in stressing the whole strong-leaders-in-a-crisis notion, though a Giuliani/Sanford campaign might be better at campaigning as DC outsiders.
Dennis, excellent points all…that’s the beauty of making a prediction three years in advance, you can throw caution to the wind. However, if you backed me in a corner and said, money down, now, on someone, that’s who I would put my money on, today. Six months from now, who knows…
If Giuliani (or, for that matter, McCain) are the best the Republicans can come up with in ‘08, then maybe the Republicans deserve to lose. (I think everyone around here knows exactly what I think of those two, so I won’t waste the bandwidth repeating my reasons.)
Cillizza’s missing Brownback, who I’m beginning to think is the most legitimate of the cookie-cutter social conservative candidates. I think Brownback will end up being very popular with Republicans and I’m still not really sold on Giuliani’s chances. I would love him, but I’m hardly your average GOP primary voter.
With Secretary Rice at 59% job approval rating by a CNN poll, just released November 12, it seems the Washington Post wants to ignore her political clout and aura of strength. Over the past 10 months, by flying and driving from political event to event across the nation, I can tell you the Condi 2008 buzz is out there. Our ads on ¨Commander in Chief¨ in New Hampshire and in Iowa caused CONDImania around the world, from the BBC to Germany and even S Korea. The vision of Condi as the first woman president of the United States seems to on the minds of thousands of people since they come to our website for information. Americans for Dr Rice was also featured today, November 12, on Headline News, with a report titled RICE ON THE RISE. Her 59% approval shows the people of the US admire her as Secretary of State, and her strength will carry her to the 2008 nomination, in my opinion. Thanks for showing providing a place for me to share my viewpoint for 2008.
dennis,
i agree with your comments, except those relating to gore.
gore is not a Vol.
he is by blood only.
he was born in deecee.
he grew up in deecee & N.Y. hotels.
he spent his summers in the Vol state “working” on the family “farm”.
his daddy being a senator from the Vol state kept the family in the northeast.
he did succeed his daddy as senator, but failed to carry the Vol state when it counted in the 2000 prez election.
i used the term Vol because i don’t know how to spell tennessee.
side note that only interests me and everyone knows about anyway:
in the 2000 prez election, that bush stole, right(?), the crowd that adhere to this arguement, don’t pay any attention to the fact that gore lost his “home” state. if you give bush florida and gore carries tennessee, we’d be talking about president gore today.
eeewwwwwwww.
Crystal, anytime…I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again…we love Condi around here!…
Giuliani/Huckabee = dream team
To use my favorite line re: Condileeza Rice running for POTUS (after she’s said so many times that she’s not interested, not to mention the very real possibility of Bush-fatigue): Thy humble servant shall believe it when thy humble servant sees it.
Knemon, beware of dream teams. Kerry/Edwards was supposedly a dream team and look at how that turned out.
fatman, somehow I knew you (or someone else) were going to say that.
Yeah, you could be right … I don’t want to go through the pro/anti Giuliani thing again (we’ll have years to do that). But: could you pull the lever for that ticket?
An excellent point – which is why I support Rudy above all others at this time. What it comes down to for the GOP is a stark choice – do they want to win with a candidate who’ll beat HRC’s pants off, or lose with a candidate who’s partial to their orthodoxy?
We need some real candidates. Of those running, maybe only Giuliani has the BALLS to name the enemy in the War on Islam.
If we get some wishy-washy media whore like McCain, the US will maintain the policy of supporting the enemy while 1000s more children around the world get beheaded for Islam.
I’m not sure about Giuliani/Romney either. I don’t dobut that Rudy has a chance at the nomination, he’s clearly got a lot of star power, but if he does get nominated he would be highly pressed to name a powerful and well-known conservative to appease the conservative base who will be skeptical with a pro-choice, pro-gay rights candidate.
I’d still like to see a McCain/Rice ticket, I think that would be tough for Hillary/whomever to beat.
Re: Knemon’s comment (November 12, 2005 @ 3:57 PM)
That’s only because I’ve said it so many times before.
As to whether or not I could pull the lever for Giuliani/Huckabee, at this point the answer is no. And I can’t think of anything that would make me change my mind.
If it’s any consolation, I don’t despise Giuliani the way I despise McCain and the Hildebeast. And if Huckabee were at the top of the ticket, I might vote for him, though I’d want to know more about him first.
“And if Huckabee were at the top of the ticket”
That’d do me just fine too.
I’m developing an allergic reaction to George Allen, though. I’ve probably said this before, but: the easiest way to neutralize HRC’s built-in senatorial disadvantage … is to nominate another senator! (Yes, I know Allen has also been Governor. But from the little I’ve seen of him, he’s caught the Senatitits.)
Fatman, it is indeed a consolation that you don’t despise Rudy. In a way, he and Huckabee are both contradictory people: a Republican from NYC, and a Baptist minister who’s comfortable in the world of show business … what’s not to like?
Huckabee/Giuliani, Giuliani/Huckabee … anyway you spell it I smell victory.
Knemon, I should have been clearer. I don’t think I could vote for any ticket that included Giuliani. When I said “And if Huckabee were at the top of the ticket”, I wasn’t thinking about the VP slot.
It’s a moot question anyway, IMHO. Giuliani would never settle for being number two.
RINO Sightings 11/14/05
I have jumped into the breach to host this week’s RINO sightings, but due to personal commitments I will not be able ’set the stage’ like I did last time! This should make Don Suber immensely happy!
So, why don’t we simp…
[...] Mark Coffey at Decision ‘08 reviews the top crop of potential Democrat and Republican presidential candidates. I wonder what Mark will call his blog after 2008?? [...]
Mark,
Thanks for the round-up. And to those of you who have said supportive things about Mike Huckabee, thank you as well. Regarding Giuliani, we at http://www.mikehuckabeepresident2008.blogspot.com believe he (Giuliani) is a fine man and a terrific leader in many respects. BUT, there is simply no way the GOP is going to nominate a pro-choice, pro-gay marriage candidate for POTUS. It is just not going to happen.
Regards,
BSR
“I don’t think I could vote for any ticket that included Giuliani.”
Whoah.
Don’t take this the wrong way, but I hope not too many people agree with you.
Well, we’ll see …
I think both Guiliani and Romney wouldn’t make it past the Great Conservative Filter that is the South Carolina Primary. McCain would (once again) run aground there too. I wouldn’t vote for any of them-Rudy and Romney get the kibosh for their positions on the Second Amendment (ie, they did absolutely nothing about the incredibly onerous restrictions in the areas they governed), and McCain for his vocal opposition to free speech.
My first choice would be Dr “I’m not running” Rice-I think she would pound Hillary into the ground, while at the same time exposing many of those on the Left as the screeching hypocrites that they are. Calling her a “house nigger” during confirmation hearings is one thing; calling her names like that if she ran for Pres would be something totally different, and would backfire hard.
Second choice, and also not on the list: Fred Thompson, former Senator from TN, now on “Law & Order.” You want star power to neutralize Hillary? Can’t do much better than an actual Hollywood star. He’s got stellar conservative credentials, and enough personal gravity to yank Jupiter out of its orbit. Oh, and can you imagine that gravelly, rumbling voice up against Shrillary in a debate?
The Gov of Colorado (Owens?) I think would make a good VP candidate
Giuliani has no chance of pulling the red state votes. Conservatives will sit at home rather than vote for a liberal Republican, no matter how much they might admire him. They don’t want him anywhere near the White House. And McCain has even less of a chance than he did, and he had zero.
George Allen has the best chance of winning in 08, not including Condi, who insists that she will not run.
Giuliani/Rice anyone?
I say the next president will be Condi Rice or George Allen (making 23% of all US presidents hailing from VA). The next VP will be either Allen (with Rice) or Rudi Giuliani (with Allen).
The 2008 ticket will be Allen/ Rice, however Condi will also retain her position as Secretary of State. I don’t think she can win the Republican nod for the top spot, just yet. But could do wonders for herself and many woman and minorities in the #2 and 3 spot, then if she wants the top job in 2112 or 2116 it’s hers for the taking.
George Allen will place 2nd in both Iowa and NH then win in SC and keep on going. McCain and Guiliani will split the moderate vote, and Allen will be the Conservative.
If Condi refuses the Veep slot, then Allen could bring Rudy in for #2.
If Rudy wants the top job in ‘08 and I think he does, he should take out Spitzer or Hillary in ‘06, then he’ll either have the Gov job, (a natural stepping stone); or he’ll have the conservatives appreciation that he shut up the Clintons once and for all by getting rid of the Hill-da-beast.
My guess is Hillary and, either Barrack Obama or Rep. Ford, from Tn, as a VP on the Dems side. To counter that, and raise one, it will be Rudy with Condi as the VP.
I definitely believe the Dems will have Harold Ford or Barrack Obama as a VP in 2008, not because they’re good men, which from a Dem viewpoint they are, but specifically on a color basis only. The Dems have been stung by the Colin Powell/Condi Rice Secretary of State thing and need to score big, with the Black community, or risk losing them. They tried the race card, after Hurricane Katrina, and that only half worked.
The Republicans, if this happens, will trump them with Rudy, the nations mayor albeit a social moderate and Condi (God only knows her real political stripe on all issues) and Republicans looking at the alternative and some Democrats will support the ticket with verve.
Prediction: Rudy and Condoleeza Rice win in a landslide.
Jim Temple:
Are you SERIOUS? Do you know anything about Harold Ford, OTHER than he stole the show as Keynote Speaker at the 2000 Dem Convention? Because I’m a Tennessee Democrat, I do. The Ford family has a horrible reputation in state for all the skeletons in their closet. John, Harold’s uncle, was indicted in Operation: Tennessee Waltz, and had been arrested for DUI’s on 2 occassions, aggravated assault, among other things… after indicted in Tennessee Waltz, John resigned from his state senate seat, and Opehlia Ford, Harold’s aunt, ran in a special election. She won by a margin of 9 votes. So far 8 votes have been shown to be fraudulent and the state legislature is trying to overturn the election on charges of voter fraud.
And these are just the CURRENT happenings affecting Ford’s candidacy for US Senate. Even the feasability of the Dems choosing Ford for VP in 08 is small. He passed up keeping a hold on his Congressional seat and filed to run for US Senate. These issues have already plagued him with all kinds of negative name recognition. So, the chance that in 06 he’s gonna overtake a staunch conservative like former Congressman Ed Bryant for Sen. Frist’s spot in a state like TN are slim to none. Then, when it comes time to chose a VP, Ford will doubtfully be in any office, showing he can’t win. And, even if he does win, he’ll have been in office for a year and a half… in this case, why would the Dems want to risk removing a Freshman senator who showed capability of winning a senate spot in TENNESSEE when there are obviously better options available?
Question to everyone on the Rudy bandwagon…. do you seriously think a pro-choice Republican can win over the single-issue voters in the south and heartland out of the primary?
If Giuliani runs, I hope the attack ads go up right away about his being a merciless ADULTERER. the GOP always want to sack the Dems and Inds with ‘Family Values’ and so on… Poor Donna Hanover had to find out about the affair on CNN! Remember? He wan’t even man enough to tell her to her face. So you GOP women — do you want his home-wrecker 2nd wife in the White House where your beloved Barbara Bush once slept? Just some food for ‘family values’ thought…
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Hmmm…not really buying the whole Giuliani or Romney thing – not going to happen. McCain probably will come out of the Republican Party but they will lose 75 percent of their base with him and lose. The Democrats will lose their gains in 2006 – they have no plan or direction. I feel 2008 will be the strongest year ever for an Independent to take the White House. Pushing Lou Dobbs
http://www.loudobbs4president.com
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