Informed Speculation

The bid by Arnold to remake California government was soundly whipped, capping off a pretty bad night overall for the GOP. The temptation to call 2006 for the Democrats has, of course, proved too much for the NY Times to handle:

Mr. Bush’s political capital has turned into a deficit.

Unsurprisingly, the Washington Post is both smarter and more nuanced:

Some Democrats in Virginia may crow that Mr. Kaine’s victory, following Mr. Warner’s successful four years in office, portends a leftward shift in the state’s political orientation. Some Republicans may insist that in the absence of an overriding state issue, it was mainly a referendum on the battered presidency of George W. Bush and that the president’s travails doomed Mr. Kilgore’s candidacy. The sounder conclusion is that Mr. Kaine’s triumph proves that a strong, smart candidate can win in Virginia regardless of party affiliation and that hot-button attacks and crass wedge-issue politics are not enough to defeat him. By thumping away at Mr. Kaine’s stands on the death penalty and illegal immigration, Mr. Kilgore tried to play on voters’ fears. He failed, and that offers a lesson that should be heeded beyond the state’s borders.

My analysis remains: treat 2005 as a wake-up call, but there’s plenty of time to get back on the offensive…starting with the Iraqi elections in a week, then Alito’s confirmation a month later. We need to control the message better and set the agenda for the public debate with aggessive salesmanship, white papers, news conferences, and television appearances. That’s the formula for success in 2006…

UPDATE 8:43 a.m.: JPod’s take:

Incumbent party victories in two states and one city. A Republican state rejected Democratic initiatives. A Democratic state rejected Republican initiatives.

Don’t let the Democratic spin doctors fool you. Election Day 2005 has nothing to tell us about where the electorate is going in the wake of Bush’s terrible year.

Ron Browstein has a much more negative assessment (for Republicans, that is):

The decisive twin victories sent Democratic spirits soaring. “There is no question the country has turned dramatically negative about President Bush and the Republican Party, and that is an albatross around the neck of every Republican candidate at every level of government,” said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, who advised Corzine…

…Mellman, the Democratic pollster, agreed that it was impossible to say that these elections would predict next year’s results. But he said the Democratic victories were a preview of the difficulties Republicans could expect if Bush could not improve his approval rating, which is now consistently running below 40%, the lowest of his presidency.

Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, seconded that assessment. “I think the basic lesson is that Bush is at a point where he is going to pull down all Republicans a few points in 2006,” he said. “He has got to restore a good 10 points on his popularity if Republicans are even going to hold their own in ‘06.”

Mike Krempasky at Red State: Welcome to the consequences of failing to inspire anyone.