Viking Pundit Speaks…
…and the world listens. Eric says that no way does the Alito nomination equal “extraordinary circumstances” under the Gang of 14 Deal and he’s right (a particularly sweet vindication for the Coalition of the Chillin’). He puts the final tally at 57-43 for confirmation…I’ll throw caution to the wind and say 58-42 (ain’t I reckless?)…
Go a little higher on the total.
Dems voting yes on roberts in red states are going to be a gold mine.
Baucus MT, Bingamin NM, Byrd WV, Conrad ND, Dorgan ND, Johnson SD, Landrieu LA, Lincoln Ark., Nelson FL, Nelson NB, Pryor Ark., Rockefeller WV, Salazar CO.
13.
Throw in the following based upon their personal beliefs about the confirmation process-
Feingold WI, Kohl WI, Lieberman CT, Jeffords VT.
So best case scenario 72…
My prediction-68. But he will easily clear 60.
If the dems hype the hearings, it will quickly become apparent that Alito is the smartest man in the room, and would not prove helpful to the desm who oppose him. Unless they can get a foothold in the first week, it is done.
mtl, actually, I was being a bit facetious…I do think it will be in the 60s somewhere, also…
Even 70s is ridiculous considering Ginsberg was 99-0, I think. Everyone knew how far to the left she was, but she was qualified for the job, and that’s what the Senate is supposed to verify. If they want justices that conform to their idealogies, they need to start winning Presidential elections.
Actually, 3 gop guys voted against Ginsburg.
Helms SC, Smith NH, Nickels OK.
Some dem abstained/didn’t vote.
It is principle. GOP has it, Dems don’t. Won’t apologize for the three no votes, but noteworthy that none of them are in office.
Stevens will be 105 (or 87) sometime in the next two years. Unless depends technology drastically improves, Bush will get one more…
This is starting to remind me of those old “Da Bears” skits on SNL. “OK, if Ditka gets nominated to the Supreme Court, I says the vote will be yea – 187; nay – 2. Now that’s a regular-size Ditka. Now if it was a mini-Ditka…”
My motto:
“Thy humble servant shall believe it when thy humble servant sees it.”
I wouldn’t count those red state Democrats until they’ve hatched. Only five of them (Bingaman, Byrd, Conrad and the Nelsons) have to face their constituents in ’06. The others may figure that by ’08 or ’10 most of the voters won’t remember or care about a confirmation fight in ’05. And they’re probably right
Meanwhile, Kohl and Lieberman also have to face the voters in ’06, as do Chaffee and Snowe; Feingold doesn’t, but he may not be inclined to vote for a justice who could be the pivotal vote if McCain-Feingold ever comes before the court again. (Don’t forget; O’Connor was the fifth vote to uphold that monstrosity.) As for Jeffords, I suspect that there’s no telling what he’ll do. Yes he’s not running for re-election and I’ll take your word about his respect for the confirmation process. But this may be last chance he’ll get to flip the Byrd (Ouch!) to the President and his former Republican colleagues and he may take it. If he can think of it, that is. Rumor has it that Jeffords may have lost a decent sized chunk of his attic insulation. (Don’t bother asking for a link; I can’t remember where I read it. But I DID read it.)
Even though Alito is clearly qualified and has already been confirmed once by unanimous consent, I don’t see him getting 60+ votes. Look at the stunt pulled by the Dems today: they’re losing touch with reality. They’ll oppose Alito simply to mollify the MoveOn wing. I’ll stick with 57-43.
Jeez, Eric, after today, maybe you’re right after all…is it too late for me to take the under?…