Informed Speculation

Regular readers of this blog will know that I am not a very confident camper heading into 2006; I think the Republicans are in for a very rude awakening if things don’t change, and quickly. I’m not the only one…Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard opens his new piece like this:

IF YOU’RE A REPUBLICAN and already worried about your party’s prospects in 2006, pollster Frank Luntz, a Republican himself, has a message for you: It’s worse than you think.

Luntz was part of the Contract with American Team in 1994, and the parallels to that fateful year are ominous:

Luntz said there were six components of the Republican triumph in 1994: change, economic anxiety, fear, anger, betrayal, and the prominence of national issues. All of these should be working today for Democrats, he said, and could fuel a Democratic landslide in 2006.

Luntz sees the same silver lining everyone else does: an inept Democratic party.

The good news for Republicans goes beyond Pelosi, the mention of whose name prompts groans from focus groups. Democrats are too negative, don’t have an agenda, and lack a national leader. “As pathetic as Republicans are, Democrats are worse,” Luntz said.

If the best we can do is, “We’re not as bad as the other guys”, maybe we do need to lose in 2006.

The Harriet Miers debacle is symptomatic of a base that has lost touch with Middle America. The average voter could care less whether David Frum feels personally betrayed that Luttig or Jones was not nominated by his former boss…but you can bet they see a party torn asunder by bickering, backstabbing, and wild accusations, at a time when we can least afford it, with Iraq at a critical junction and possible indictments looming over White House insiders.

I have stated it before, but I’ll try to make it as plain as I can: if you’re opposed to Harriet Miers, work through the process to defeat her. I’ll respect that, and so will the American people. That’s democracy; people disagree all the time. If you want to go hanging out your ideological dirty laundry so you can preserve your purity while we lose the Congress, you can take that tune elsewhere. This party is fond of calling itself the ‘Big Tent’ party; how ironic that that tent isn’t big enough to house a dispute over a lousy Supreme Court nomination for some.

There are monumental things going on in this world: they are taking place in countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Iran, North Korea, and Syria. Foreign policy has not been this important, or this delicate, since the Vietnam War. And now, the hardcore partisans choose to revolt? Now, of all times?

Avert your gaze, everyone! Frum the Pureheart is coming through…

It’s disgusting…and genuinely harmful to our cause…

UPDATE 10:11 p.m.: Read this exchange between Hugh Hewitt and Frum…quite enlightening…and here’s some good give and take from both sides here…