Decision ‘08

Good News, Bad News…

The Good News: Bush’s poll numbers are up 5 points in one week…

The Bad News: His job approval is still only at 45%…

The Good News: Going from 40% to 45% is actually a 12.5% increase (40/5 = 8, 100/8 = 12.5 - I know you’re all applauding this astounding display of mathematical acumen out there)…

The Bad News: There is a 5% margin of error, so Bush’s numbers may, in fact, have not moved at all…

The Good News: That same margin of error means he may have already been at 45% last week…

The Bad News: This idea has run its course (or wait - maybe that’s the good news again)…

7 Responses to “Good News, Bad News…”

1 AcademicElephant Says:
September 29th, 2005 at 9:42 pm
Oh, what are you doing obsessing over polls at this point? If I ever, ever did such a thing I might say that a big “I told you so” was coming.
2 Mark Says:
September 29th, 2005 at 10:43 pm
Hey, I’m just saying it’s good news (or is that bad news?)…
3 fatman Says:
September 29th, 2005 at 11:37 pm
You know, when I get like this, I go and lay down in a cool, dark, quiet room with a cold compress on my forehead until it passes.
4 AcademicElephant Says:
September 30th, 2005 at 7:29 am
I think it’s good news too–hence the threatened I-told-you-so–because I wrote 10 days ago that I thought Bush would be at 50 by the middle of October.

Or, on the other hand, I could be wrong…

I’m off to make Wolfowitz my man of the week. He’s on a roll.
5 megapotamus Says:
September 30th, 2005 at 10:08 am
5% margin? Isn’t it usually about half that?
6 mark, the lesser Says:
September 30th, 2005 at 10:50 am
Actually, it is a consistent number.

Clearly the bleeding has stopped. given that gas prices are 3.20 a gallon…we are losing soldiers almost daily…no good news to report(the media’s choice, not mine)…
He’s lucky to be above 40%. Clinton got below it in 94, but then that was an election year…timing is everything.

45% is solid. Cnn/Gallup, FOX, Rassmussen-the margin of error shrinks drastically when you replicate the results.

Iraq is going much better than reported. I know, we lost 5 soldiers yesterday, but it is worth noting that the number of wounded which was always 450 or higher per month since May 2003, has come down to about 120 for the month. a seventy five percent reduction in wounded, spontaneously, has the hallmarks of the reported change in duty that is transpiring but the media is failing to report.

If approval numbers are important to you guys, you have several events that will give it a boost. Gas will come down, timed right about the Iraqi elections, State of the Union, in Januray 2006, announcing troop withdrawal for Summer 2006. A JR Brown nomination would hurt his approval to an extent, but would be far more deleterious to the Dems who will be telling black voters what to think of a conservative African American who is capable of filling the post.

It really doesn’t matter what your approval rating is, so long as it is better than your opponents. The FOX poll had some numbers regarding GOP v. DEM for congress. Historically the GOP has trailed, but it still remains 35% R, 38% D. This is consistent with the numbers for the 2004 election. GOP won the Presidency and maintained status quo in Senate and House, despite the dems showing better numbers, similar to the FOX poll of genric congressional vote.

http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/generic_vote.html

I would never crow about 45% approval, but it still is actually good news, despite all the bad.
7 Dennis Says:
September 30th, 2005 at 1:00 pm
The really good news is that no matter what his poll numbers are, he gets to keep living in the big house on Pennsylvania Avenue until 2009.