Informed Speculation

Time Magazine asks, “Is this the race for 2008?” before launching into a look at the prospective candidacies of John McCain and Hillary Clinton. Some highlights:

…[T]he buzz that greets Clinton and McCain these days tells you something about what’s increasingly apparent in real-world politics: the 2008 race is already taking shape, and the shape it is taking looks very much like these two potential rivals. Should McCain and Clinton each decide to make a bid–and most people around them expect it–both would become their party’s instant front runner.

…Clinton’s and McCain’s story lines would be set and would even have a synchronicity to them. Clinton would be declared unstoppable in her party’s primary but doomed in the general election. For McCain, that bet would be made in reverse. Clinton would have the money; McCain would have the media. Each would be haunted by another President: for her, the one she is married to; for him, the one who beat him the last time he ran. And if it should come to a head-to-head race between them? It could be a close one: a recent Gallup poll showed McCain in front, 50% to 45%.

…Although unwaveringly hawkish on an unpopular war and firmly on the right about social matters like abortion, he also has a penchant for taking on issues like campaign-finance reform that discomfort the faithful in both parties and often just his own. Whereas many Republicans refuse to acknowledge that global warming even exists, it has become something of an obsession with him. The immigration-reform bill he introduced last month would beef up border security but give undocumented aliens a path to legalization, which many on the right oppose. Says McCain’s chief political strategist John Weaver: “You can appeal to the base in a way and a manner that excites them but also in a way that does not put off the broad middle of the country. If he runs, that will be our thesis.”

There’s a lot more; it’s an unusually lengthy, well-done piece for this early in the season. Highly recommended…