Decision ‘08

Is Hillary A Slam-Dunk? Plus the Meme Effect

That’s what Coalition member Alexander McClure of PoliPundit says…he just may be right…

James Taranto was the only charter member not to accept (or even respond), but if you’re not reading the Best of the Web daily, you should be…

Speaking of the Wall Street Journal (and we were), here’s an interesting story on the numbers behind blogs. It suggests (accurately, I’m sure) that the number of blogs and their readership are both overblown. My own guess is that there are probably about 50 or so truly influential blogs (and this ain’t one of them), if influential means bigtime news- and decision-makers read them regularly.

What is difficult to capture, and probably impossible to track (and here’s where blogs like mine - and yours - come in), is the ‘meme’ influence of smaller blogs. Ideas can spread much like viruses and implant themselves in the public consciousness through repetition. As such, even small blogs can wield enormous influence - collectively.

I won’t pretend that I had a great agenda behind the Coalition of the Chillin’ - it was a goof that happened to (luckily for me, and I hope for you, as well) tap into some low-level frustration. It occurs to me, though, that it accidentally serves a pretty important purpose. To put it as simply as I can - nobody digs the Daily Kos but the Kossacks. If that’s the model we emulate, right or left, then blogs will lose their influence quickly. Shrill histrionics and apocalyptic rhetoric, blogger triumphalism, all of these things appeal only to the faithful. Let us stand for our principles, yes, but we don’t have to shout all the time, that’s all. If we become completely indignant about every issue, how will we differentiate the TRULY terrible from the mildly annoying?…

Oh, and a big welcome to the newest coalition member, Citizen Grim…and check out a couple more Coalition blogs, while you’re at it (Ryan James, who has done an excellent job for us, has the blogroll)…

4 Responses to “Is Hillary A Slam-Dunk? Plus the Meme Effect”

1 W.C. Varones Says:
May 27th, 2005 at 8:31 am
First, thanks for the link and the good work on Coalition of the Chillin!

I do have questions about your nomination odds, though… in general, I think your odds are too long. It says that the odds posted are to win the nomination. Is this right? Hillary is 8:1 just to get the Dem nomination, not to win the presidency?

If this is the case, the odds are way too long. The odds should add up to 1 if you do the following: add 1 and take the reciprocal (so Hillary’s 8:1 becomes 1/9, or 0.1111). Adding up all of the individual candidates in this manner should give you 1 (though your actual result will be less than 1 because you haven’t named every possible candidate).

Anyway, I like the concept (it would be really cool to start real $ trading!). I’d agree with AKM that Hillary is pretty much a lock on the nomination… and if you gave me 8:1 I’d take it!

Regards,

W.C. Varones
2 Jojo Says:
May 27th, 2005 at 10:00 am
I think 8:1 is still reasonable until she actually *announces* she will run; she may still decide not to run at all, for whatever reason.
3 Mark Coffey Says:
May 27th, 2005 at 2:51 pm
W. C., good points; in regards to adding up to 1, keep in mind that I still have a lot of candidate profiles yet to do…

Specifically, with Hillary, I may revisit her odds and improve them…a little. She still has a very bruising primary fight ahead of her; her relative moderation (sounds odd, doesn’t it?) has not endeared her to the Kossacks, Deaniacs, and other hardcore lefties…
4 W.C. Varones Says:
May 27th, 2005 at 9:05 pm
I’ve got more thoughts on Hillary here.

It’s happening. It’s like those apocalyptic horror movies: “The age of prophecy is upon us.”