Candidate Profile Eighteen: Evan Bayh
I’ve long made a habit of warning our side that if we take Hillary for granted, we’ll regret it; similarly, if Hillary takes Evan Bayh for granted, she would be very foolish indeed. The Democratic Senator for Indiana is considered by some to be the most likely primary candidate to unseat Hillary, so let’s take a closer look.
Birch Evans Bayh III - Official Senate page
Americans for Bayh unoffical 2008 website
Resume – son of former Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Birch E. Bayh II; two-term Senator from Indiana; former Indiana Secretary of State; member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Select Committee on Intelligence; chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council; advocate of ‘Third Way’ politics (think Tony Blair in the heartland); two-term Governor of Indiana (1989- 1997)
As Chip Bennett recently noted, all the signs of a 2008 run are present for Bayh. I think we can safely assume he’ll be around for the primaries. It is in the primaries that Bayh would face his most difficult battle, one symbolic of the struggle for the Democratic soul: will the Dems be the party of Bill Clinton and the Democratic Leadership Council, or the party of Howard Dean and MoveOn.org? (Ironically, Bayh would be a more representative ‘New Democrat’ candidate than Clinton’s own wife).
The problem is the Democratic Leadership Council is relatively centrist, as is Bayh, and that’s anathema to the Kossacks and their ilk. For Markos, MoveOn.org, and the other Radical Left elements, it is apparently more important to preserve an atmosphere of vitriolic hate and crude profanity towards Republicans than to ever win another national election. It’s the ‘purity’ (ha!) of the movement that counts, you see. Of course, what MoveOn and Kos don’t realize is that their 3 million members and 400,000 daily visitors aren’t symptomatic of a larger America that agrees with them – in fact, those numbers capture virtually everyone in America that agrees with their viewpoint – call it the Unsilent Minority, if you will.
What’s all this got to do with Bayh? Plenty. I believe that the Democratic primaries of 2008 will be the most important held for that party since the days of Vietnam; truly, the future of the party is at stake. Hillary, Bayh, the DLC, the New Democrats – they understand this, and have taken pains to distance themselves from the Radicals. The ‘progressives’ are motivated, though, united in their belief that the entire world is composed of idiots that have been brainwashed into selling out; they make a fearful noise, and one of their own is now the Chairman of the Democratic Party.
If the centrist wing can recapture the primary process, and if the centrists consider Hillary to be the bearer of too much baggage to win (two big ifs, I know), then Bayh may present himself as a quite attractive alternative. Personally, I’m rooting for the centrists; although the partisan in me relishes a fight against the Progressives, I believe we need a strong Democratic Party to engage us in meaningful debate. Needlessly to say, we’ll have more on this as events develop.
CURRENT ODDS: 17-1
UPDATE 07/04/05 10:38 p.m. central: Once you get past Hillary, this is shaping up to be a weak field. Bayh’s a player, for now…
CURRENT ODDS: 12-1
UPDATE 08/20/05 5:15 p.m. central – CURRENT ODDS: 10-1: see here…
Good question…maybe Richardson next week. Quick answer, though – I like Bayh’s chances better.
How do you rate Bayh against Bill Richardson of New Mexico? They seem to be the most prominent governors, and they’re both DLC. I don’t think two governors in a primary race would work, though.
I don’t think Hillary stands a chance in fly-over country. (All the GOP candidate needs to do is bring up HillaryCare – assuming she manages to stay out of prison between now and then, given her flirting with McCain-Feingold violations.)
On the other hand, someone like Bayh has proven he can win – and maintain popularity – in a heavily Republican state.
The question is, which wing of the Dem party will control the primary process?
Interestingly, Clinton, Bayh, and (please!!!) Kerry are all senators – and historically, Senators-cum-presidential-candidates don’t do so well…
I’ll vote for Bayh, if he’s still in the thing when our primary comes around (I think we have open primaries).
There probably are a few Republicans I’d vote for Bayh over …
It’s so much that I have bias towards Bayh, as I have a bias towards DLC-type centrism. I do agree that the centrists will be happy with Hillary, but will they conclude she is ‘unelectable’? Time will tell…
Jojo: Bayh has been a Senator for a few yrs. now so has both jobs on his resume; however, he doesn’t stand a chance against Hillary. The centrists will be perfectly happy with her and the only resistance you’ll see is from progressives, so the alternative to Hillary is likely to be someone like Feingold or Richardson. Mark, I think your bias towards Bayh is skewing your odds-making! As a guy with some Hoosier state roots (my mother’s family all hails from there), I can tell you that Indiana popularity doesn’t necessarily translate nationally (think: Quayle, Lugar, Bayh Sr.!).
Nope, and it’s an open question whether the fact that senators are doing well so far is a sign of change or just a sign that we’re all going to get blind-sided again, in the mode of the Clinton candidacy…
Not in a million years. Bayh is pro-life and that means no dice in a dem primary. Now, if he switched parties….
Yeah, it’s the primaries that will be his problem, no doubt…and that’s why I think the Republicans still have the upper hand in 2008. It’s hard to see an acceptable national candidate making it through…
[...] NOTE: Concurrent with this profile, I am moving Bayh and Warner up; both are positioned fairly well at the moment. This entry was posted on Saturday, August 20th, 2005 at 4:40 pm and is filed under Democratic Candidates, Russ Feingold. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site. [...]
“I believe that the Democratic primaries of 2008 will be the most important held for that party since the days of Vietnam; truly, the future of the party is at stake.”
Geez. Deja vu all over again. Everyone said that the future of the Democratic Party was at stake in 2004.
Personally, I think they got it right the first time….the Democratic Party is finished. There is no candidate they can nominate now that will unite enough of the Party to be able to win. With the Bush Administration leaving the White House regardless, many of the Dems who fell in line behind Kerry won’t be willing to fall in line again next time. Hillary may be able to unite them enough to win the nomination, but not enough to win the White House. And she may have more trouble than the polls suggest. Dems are big on candidates who are electable (although very bad at figuring out who is one). In the end, her strong negative numbers may scare them away.